Glacier Melt Drivers, Thre<strong>at</strong>s, Impacts <strong>and</strong> IssuesDrivers of GlacierMelt/ Retre<strong>at</strong>Thre<strong>at</strong>s: GlacierMelt/Retre<strong>at</strong>Impacts ofThre<strong>at</strong>sIssues/Sectorsto be AddressedWarm<strong>in</strong>g due to<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g greenhousegasesGLOFsInjury <strong>and</strong> de<strong>at</strong>h,displacement, l<strong>and</strong>damageDisasterpreparedness <strong>and</strong>managementSurface melt due toblack soot aerosolsdeposited on glaciersLoc<strong>at</strong>ion of the High<strong>Asia</strong> - near the world’slargest source of blackcarbon (S <strong>and</strong> E <strong>Asia</strong>)Changes <strong>in</strong>hydrologicsystemsDroughts <strong>and</strong>floodsDecreased foodproduction,changes <strong>in</strong>livelihoods<strong>Health</strong>yecosystems,biodiversityFood <strong>and</strong> w<strong>at</strong>ersecurityAbove-average r<strong>at</strong>es ofpopul<strong>at</strong>ion growth <strong>and</strong>poverty <strong>in</strong> S <strong>and</strong> E <strong>Asia</strong>coupled with lack ofclean energytechnology amplifyconsumption ofbiomass fuels <strong>and</strong>emissions of blackcarbonHunger,malnutrition,<strong>in</strong>creasedsusceptibility todiseasesResilience, health,human capitalExample Cross-Sector, Co-Benefit InterventionIntervention:Improve W<strong>at</strong>erC<strong>at</strong>chmentsPolicy: providefund<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> technicalassistancePublic Info: Providehow-to <strong>in</strong>form<strong>at</strong>ion oncre<strong>at</strong><strong>in</strong>g new <strong>and</strong>improv<strong>in</strong>g oldc<strong>at</strong>chmentsPartnerships: Jo<strong>in</strong>with community <strong>and</strong>local organiz<strong>at</strong>ions to<strong>in</strong>crease c<strong>at</strong>chmentpotentialResearch: TrackoutcomesAddressesimpactsWith potential cobenefitsaddress<strong>in</strong>gDecreased foodproduction,changes <strong>in</strong>livelihoodsHunger,malnutrition,<strong>in</strong>creasedsusceptibility todiseasesIn sectorsIncreased <strong>in</strong>tensera<strong>in</strong>s, cyclonesW<strong>at</strong>er/air pollutionInefficientirrig<strong>at</strong>ion systemsDisasterpreparedness <strong>and</strong>management<strong>Health</strong>yecosystems,biodiversityFood securityResilience, health,human capitalR<strong>at</strong>ionale: As w<strong>at</strong>er supply <strong>and</strong> its tim<strong>in</strong>g becomemore uncerta<strong>in</strong>, w<strong>at</strong>er management becomes moreimportant.Figure 5.1. Framework for address<strong>in</strong>g cross-sectoral issues <strong>and</strong> realiz<strong>in</strong>g co-benefits. Therel<strong>at</strong>ionships among the drivers of glacial melt, thre<strong>at</strong>s, <strong>and</strong> issues to be addressed areillustr<strong>at</strong>ed by the top graphic, <strong>and</strong> an example of how to consider cross-sectoral projectswith multiple benefits is illustr<strong>at</strong>ed by the bottom graphic.52
Central <strong>Asia</strong>n Republics. Like the Indus River Bas<strong>in</strong>, the entire region is arid, sow<strong>at</strong>er supply – <strong>and</strong> any changes – are extremely important under any circumstances.W<strong>at</strong>er management <strong>in</strong>frastructure problems are <strong>at</strong> least a partial legacy of the SovietUnion. Recent years have seen conflicts between upstream countries th<strong>at</strong> have abundantw<strong>at</strong>er <strong>and</strong> downstream countries with w<strong>at</strong>er needs, e.g., for irrig<strong>at</strong>ion.5.1 RESPONDING TO THE CHALLENGE OF LACK OF INFORMATIONThe recognition of a severe knowledge gap detailed <strong>in</strong> Section 2 raises the urgent need toimprove cross-boundary scientific collabor<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>and</strong> cooper<strong>at</strong>ion. W<strong>at</strong>er resources management<strong>and</strong> plann<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the w<strong>at</strong>ersheds of High <strong>Asia</strong> are by n<strong>at</strong>ure transboundary. <strong>Glaciers</strong> are found <strong>in</strong>the high mounta<strong>in</strong>s of India, Ch<strong>in</strong>a, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan,<strong>and</strong> Kyrgyzstan—but the health of the glaciers <strong>and</strong> stability of the high-altitude hydrologicregime are of concern to every country <strong>in</strong> the region. Therefore, regional cooper<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>and</strong>collabor<strong>at</strong>ion are essential <strong>in</strong> order to plan for optimal <strong>and</strong> fair w<strong>at</strong>er use under both current<strong>and</strong> future conditions. Such programs should demonstr<strong>at</strong>e for policymakers th<strong>at</strong> transboundaryscientific cooper<strong>at</strong>ion is essential to accur<strong>at</strong>ely assess regional clim<strong>at</strong>e change impacts, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>gacceler<strong>at</strong>ed glacier melt.A correspond<strong>in</strong>g need is to exp<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> strengthen capacity to monitor glaciers <strong>and</strong> hydrologicchanges across High <strong>Asia</strong> <strong>in</strong> order to answer questions about mass balances, r<strong>at</strong>es of change <strong>and</strong>their determ<strong>in</strong>ants, <strong>and</strong> the role of black carbon, among other questions. Effective monitor<strong>in</strong>g ofclim<strong>at</strong>e <strong>and</strong> w<strong>at</strong>er resources over large mounta<strong>in</strong>ous regions requires the capability tocharacterize conditions across variable <strong>and</strong> complex terra<strong>in</strong>. Many of the knowledge gapsregard<strong>in</strong>g rel<strong>at</strong>ionships among we<strong>at</strong>her, clim<strong>at</strong>e, hydrology, <strong>and</strong> w<strong>at</strong>er consumption existbecause of <strong>in</strong>adequ<strong>at</strong>e monitor<strong>in</strong>g. Such knowledge gaps can lead to predictions th<strong>at</strong> are basedon false assumptions, result<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> poorly <strong>in</strong>formed plann<strong>in</strong>g. While some critical d<strong>at</strong>a can beacquired by s<strong>at</strong>ellite remote sens<strong>in</strong>g, many essential parameters must be obta<strong>in</strong>ed bymeasurements on the ground, both autom<strong>at</strong>ed <strong>and</strong> manual. Community-based observ<strong>at</strong>ionsoffer a way to both <strong>in</strong>volve communities <strong>and</strong> to build, <strong>at</strong> low cost, both capacity on the ground<strong>and</strong> observ<strong>at</strong>ional d<strong>at</strong>a sets. Researchers also need to present d<strong>at</strong>a <strong>and</strong> associ<strong>at</strong>ed analysis <strong>in</strong> aform<strong>at</strong> th<strong>at</strong> is both underst<strong>and</strong>able <strong>and</strong> useful to policy makers as well as to the many otherstakeholders <strong>in</strong>volved <strong>in</strong> plann<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> implement<strong>in</strong>g clim<strong>at</strong>e change mitig<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>and</strong> adapt<strong>at</strong>ionpolicies <strong>and</strong> programs.5.1.1. Focus on Improv<strong>in</strong>g Regional Scientific Cooper<strong>at</strong>ion on Glacier, Snowpack<strong>and</strong> W<strong>at</strong>er Resources <strong>in</strong> High <strong>Asia</strong>USAID can design a program or programs of regional knowledge-shar<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> scientific capacitybuild<strong>in</strong>gth<strong>at</strong> will lead to comprehensive <strong>and</strong> effective solutions to w<strong>at</strong>er resource problems,<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g changes <strong>in</strong> the amount <strong>and</strong> tim<strong>in</strong>g of glacier meltw<strong>at</strong>er. The aim is to establishsusta<strong>in</strong>able mechanisms for scientific cooper<strong>at</strong>ion.53