Malaria Epidemic Forecasting and Preparedness Manual

As you see in Fig. 2, in Massawa subzoba, there is not a regularseasonal peak of transmission. Instead, there is low leveltransmission most of the time, with occasional peaks. In thiscase it seems that there were epidemics in January 1998 andJanuary 2001.To understand the likelihood of epidemics in a particular area ata particular time, we need to have knowledge of the past historyof cases in that particular area so that we know how many casesare expected. Much of that information is known by theexperienced staff, but it is important to document it to make itclear and to pass on the knowledge to others.We also need to give a figure of the number of epidemics thatoccurred in particular areas over particular time periods (forexample, by year or quarter). This is because one of the targetsof the NMCP is to reduce the number of malaria epidemics andthe number of cases during epidemics. This cannot be evaluatedunless we know how many epidemics were occurring in the pastand present, and how many may occur in the future.Eritrea Epidemic Manual, June 2003 5