Malaria Epidemic Forecasting and Preparedness Manual

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5. EpidemicForecasting andWarningThere are distinct stages defined in the process of epidemicwarning and forecasting. We can divide them into “long-termforecasting” and “short-term warning.” The time scales involvedare shown in Fig. 3.Fig 3: ANSEBA - HAGAZ 1998 and 19993000malaria outpatient cases2500Malaria OPD cases200015001000Long-term(climate forecast)Short-term (rainfall)Detection (cases)Long-term(climate forecast)Short-term (rainfall)Detection (cases)5000Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99MonthEritrea Epidemic Manual, June 2003 11
Long-term forecasting (severalmonths in advance)Long-term forecasting is based on meteorological data, usuallyfairly general predictions of rainfall amounts. These are not veryaccurate and only give a probability of whether the rainfall willbe higher or lower than usual, or will be normal.Seasonal rainfall predictions are made regularly by internationalorganisations. An example is the seasonal climate forecast forthe Greater Horn of Africa produced by the Climate OutlookForum in Nairobi. These forecasts are sent to the Meteorologysection at the Asmara airport and are also available on theinternet. The forecasts are based mainly on sea surfacetemperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Indian oceans as wellas El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean.At the moment, these seasonal forecasts are not very accuratefor Eritrea. Therefore we do not recommend changing the alertlevel depending on the forecast. In the future, this advice maychange. In the meantime, if there is a seasonal forecast givinghigh probability of above normal rainfall, this should triggerstronger monitoring of local rainfall data.Short-term warning (up to 2 months inadvance)This type of warning is based on actual rainfall amountsoccurring (or other meteorological information), or onentomological data. There are several possible sources of data:• Monthly or decad (10 day) meteorological data (rainfallamounts, temperature, relative humidity) reported by theDept. of Agriculture stations throughout Eritrea• Meteorological data (rainfall, temperature, relativehumidity) recorded on a daily basis at sentinel sites12Eritrea Epidemic Manual, June 2003
Page 2: Malaria Epidemic Forecastingand Pre
Page 6: ContentsIntroduction...............
Page 9 and 10: There are also criteria for decidin
Page 12: 1. General Definitionof an Epidemic
Page 15 and 16: Fig 1: GASH BARKA - GULUJ 1996 - 20
Page 18: 3. GeographicStratificationStratifi
Page 21: If there has been unusually large m
Page 25 and 26: You can see from Fig. 4 that there
Page 27 and 28: 6. Inform Epidemic Preparedness and
Page 29 and 30: The threshold can be calculated by
Page 31 and 32: To calculate and draw monthly thres
Page 33 and 34: Table 2:MonthRe-ordered OPD malaria
Page 35 and 36: To calculate and draw weekly thresh
Page 37 and 38: Definition of an epidemicAt the beg
Page 39 and 40: 2. Drugs3. Insecticides for IRS and
Page 41 and 42: factor (for example increase in num
Page 43 and 44: ResponseWhen to change from “ALER
Page 45 and 46: Table 2:MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJuly
Page 47 and 48: Graphs are shown in the sheets call
Page 49 and 50: Month GraphEXAMPLE Health Centre400
Page 51 and 52: Week Data continuedweek median 3rd

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