Malaria Epidemic Forecasting and Preparedness Manual

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Week GraphEXAMPLE Health CentreMalaria OPD cases2001801601401201008060402001 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51WeekMedianThird quartileEritrea Epidemic Manual, June 2003 41
Page 2: Malaria Epidemic Forecastingand Pre
Page 6: ContentsIntroduction...............
Page 9 and 10: There are also criteria for decidin
Page 12: 1. General Definitionof an Epidemic
Page 15 and 16: Fig 1: GASH BARKA - GULUJ 1996 - 20
Page 18: 3. GeographicStratificationStratifi
Page 21 and 22: If there has been unusually large m
Page 23 and 24: Long-term forecasting (severalmonth
Page 25 and 26: You can see from Fig. 4 that there
Page 27 and 28: 6. Inform Epidemic Preparedness and
Page 29 and 30: The threshold can be calculated by
Page 31 and 32: To calculate and draw monthly thres
Page 33 and 34: Table 2:MonthRe-ordered OPD malaria
Page 35 and 36: To calculate and draw weekly thresh
Page 37 and 38: Definition of an epidemicAt the beg
Page 39 and 40: 2. Drugs3. Insecticides for IRS and
Page 41 and 42: factor (for example increase in num
Page 43 and 44: ResponseWhen to change from “ALER
Page 45 and 46: Table 2:MonthJanFebMarAprMayJunJuly
Page 47 and 48: Graphs are shown in the sheets call
Page 49 and 50: Month GraphEXAMPLE Health Centre400
Page 51: Week Data continuedweek median 3rd

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