Malaria Epidemic Forecasting and Preparedness Manual

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Prepared by EHP for the National <strong>Malaria</strong> Control ProgramCommunicable Disease Control DivisionMinistry of Health, Asmara, EritreaEnvironmental Health ProjectContract HRN-I-00-99-00011-00is sponsored by theOffice of Health, Infectious Diseases <strong>and</strong> NutritionBureau for Global HealthU.S. Agency for International DevelopmentWashington, DC 20523
Page 2: Malaria Epidemic Forecastingand Pre
Page 8 and 9: IntroductionThis manual is written
Page 10: Preparedness,” and what actions t
Page 14 and 15: 2. Characteristics ofMalaria Epidem
Page 16: As you see in Fig. 2, in Massawa su
Page 20 and 21: 4. AssessingVulnerabilitySocial fac
Page 22 and 23: 5. EpidemicForecasting andWarningTh
Page 24 and 25: • Rainfall amounts estimated from
Page 26 and 27: If we get unusually high rainfall i
Page 28 and 29: 6. Epidemic DetectionOnce an epidem
Page 30 and 31: Fig 6: ELABERED - EPIDEMIC THRESHOL
Page 32 and 33: Table 1:MonthOPD malaria cases by H
Page 34 and 35: 5. If you have a computer, you can
Page 36 and 37: suggests that an epidemic (higher t
Page 38 and 39: 7. EpidemicPreparednessEpidemic pre
Page 40 and 41: 8. EpidemicResponseIf an unusual in
Page 42 and 43: Alert LevelsREDYELLOWGREENEach year
Page 44 and 45: Table 1: WORKSHEET FOR CALCULATING
Page 46 and 47: PRINT-OUT OF“THRESHOLD 3Q.XLS”E
Page 48 and 49: Month DataSPREADSHEET TO CALCULATE
Page 50 and 51: Week DataSPREADSHEET TO CALCULATE W
Page 52: Week GraphEXAMPLE Health CentreMala

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