Decision Making in a Changing Climate - World Resources Institute

2executive SummaryEXECUTIVESUMMARYWorld Resources 2010-2011Adaptation to accommodate climate change will framethe future for countries and communities across the globe. Responding to climateimpacts as diverse as altered rainfall patterns, more frequent or intense extremeweather events, and rising sea levels will challenge decision makers at every levelof government and in every sector of the economy. What steps should be taken to protect vitalinfrastructure, such as roads, dams, and factories, or to ensure the safety of housing stocks, bothexisting and yet to be built? What policies should be adopted or investments made to help agricultureadapt to new rainfall and temperature regimes and to secure local food supplies? Howshould valuable ecosystems like forests or coral reefs be managed to maintain the vital servicesthey render and livelihoods they support? How can we ensure that the unique challenges facedby the most vulnerable and disadvantaged people are not overlooked or ignored?Complicating these challenges is the uncertainty that surrounds how such changes will unfold.Future rainfall projections for Ghana in 2050, for example, vary from much wetter to much drier,with estimates ranging from a 49 percent increase to a 65 percent decrease from 2010 levels 1 inannual precipitation. Such a range makes it difficult for governments to prepare for the impactson key sectors such as agriculture and electricity generation.Another challenge that decision makers will need to face is that climate change will not playout on a level playing field. The vulnerability of affected populations and ecosystems will influencethe outcomes of climate change on the ground. When a disaster strikes or a long-term changeunfolds, the impact will vary between and often within regions, countries, and localities, basedon the vulnerability of affected people. For example, a cyclone in Australia will not have the sameimpact on communities as one of equal magnitude in Bangladesh.While there are early examples of adaptation efforts now taking place, many national governmentshave yet to integrate climate change risks into current and long-term planning and policymaking.Developing countries face particularly difficult challenges in doing so. Many will bear aheavier burden of climate change impacts because of factors beyond their control, such as geography.At the same time, their ability to undertake adaptation initiatives to accommodate long-termimpacts, such as glacial melt or sea level rise, is severely constrained by the press of meetingcurrent development needs, among other factors. Yet integrating climate risks into governmentaldecision making will be essential if development and other goals are to be met.