20<strong>World</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> 2010–2011: Methodschapter 1?New Model: For the past 24 years, <strong>World</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> has beenpublished biennially <strong>in</strong> a collaborative effort by the <strong>World</strong> <strong>Resources</strong><strong>Institute</strong>, UNDP, UNEP, and <strong>World</strong> Bank. <strong>World</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> 2010–2011is based on a new model that has engaged audiences both throughoutour research activities and <strong>in</strong> develop<strong>in</strong>g the guidance for policymakers conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> this publication. Our research activities focusedon identify<strong>in</strong>g the elements needed for effective decision mak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> achang<strong>in</strong>g climate. F<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs and lessons learned are synthesized here,with extracts from our case studies and expert papers. The researchcan be found at www.worldresourcesreport.org.Case Studies: 12 case studies were commissioned from practitioners<strong>in</strong> Africa, Asia, and Lat<strong>in</strong> America work<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> sectors fac<strong>in</strong>g significantimpacts and decision-mak<strong>in</strong>g challenges:• Coastal zone management: Bangladesh, Vietnam• Water management: Ch<strong>in</strong>a, Nepal• Forest management: Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa• Agriculture: Ch<strong>in</strong>a, Mali, Mongolia, Namibia• Electricity production: RwandaThese studies provide examples of national-level decision-mak<strong>in</strong>gprocesses that have <strong>in</strong>tegrated short-term and long-term risks <strong>in</strong>toexist<strong>in</strong>g plans and policies, enabl<strong>in</strong>g us to draw useful lessons.S<strong>in</strong>ce many adaptation efforts are <strong>in</strong> their <strong>in</strong>fancy, we also <strong>in</strong>cludedcase studies of processes that have succeeded <strong>in</strong> respond<strong>in</strong>g toor anticipat<strong>in</strong>g other types of change and may provide lessons forcontend<strong>in</strong>g with climate change.Expert Perspectives: 56 expert papers and commentaries werecommissioned from prom<strong>in</strong>ent public officials, thought leaders,practitioners, and WRR partner organizations <strong>in</strong> response to criticalpolicy questions for adaptation decision mak<strong>in</strong>g. These coveredareas such as the role of donor agencies, civil society, and the privatesector; <strong>in</strong>formation needs for effective adaptation; and whether afundamentally different approach is needed to conserve ecosystems<strong>in</strong> response to climate change. Contributors from 36 countries tookpart <strong>in</strong> exchanges available on www.worldresourcesreport.org. Theauthors are listed on the <strong>in</strong>side front cover.Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty Paper Series: We commissioned several experts towrite short policy briefs on how develop<strong>in</strong>g country decision makerscan effectively contend with the uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty associated with climatechange risks.Simulation Exercises: In late 2010 WRR partnered with theConsensus Build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Institute</strong> to host two <strong>in</strong>novative climate simulationexercises. The first <strong>in</strong> Accra, Ghana was co-hosted by UNDP andthe Ghanaian Energy Commission. The participants <strong>in</strong>cludedrepresentatives from the M<strong>in</strong>istries of Energy and F<strong>in</strong>ance and fromprom<strong>in</strong>ent national non-governmental organizations. The secondexercise, <strong>in</strong> Can Tho, Vietnam, was co-hosted by Can Tho University.The participants <strong>in</strong>cluded government officials, representatives offarmers’ unions and aid agencies, and scientists. We explore theoutcomes of these exercises on page 98.While any set of sectors will <strong>in</strong>evitably be arbitrary, we have chosencase studies <strong>in</strong> those listed above because decision makers <strong>in</strong> thesesectors will face significant challenges <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>corporat<strong>in</strong>g current andfuture climate risks <strong>in</strong> many nations, and because the list buildsupon our partners’ and our expertise. We <strong>in</strong>clude short synopses ofour case studies throughout this report, <strong>in</strong>terspersed between thechapters. For the complete case studies, please visit our website atwww.worldresourcesreport.org.Roundtables on Information and Coord<strong>in</strong>ation: Two roundtables<strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g experts and practitioners <strong>in</strong>formed our research. The first,held <strong>in</strong> Wash<strong>in</strong>gton, DC, identified <strong>in</strong>formation needs and modelsfor <strong>in</strong>formation collection and dissem<strong>in</strong>ation. The second, held <strong>in</strong>Cancun, Mexico, assessed emerg<strong>in</strong>g models for coord<strong>in</strong>ation andassociated pitfalls.<strong>World</strong> <strong>Resources</strong> 2010-2011Officials should also take an iterative approach to policy and plan development. This is essentials<strong>in</strong>ce knowledge about risks, vulnerability, and priorities will change over time. Policy adjustmentswill also be required <strong>in</strong> l<strong>in</strong>e with new <strong>in</strong>formation, scientific developments, monitor<strong>in</strong>g andassessment of strategies, and other policy processes (such as those related to mitigation). 18 Thus,the steps outl<strong>in</strong>ed above need to be carried out repeatedly, mirror<strong>in</strong>g the long-last<strong>in</strong>g, chang<strong>in</strong>gnature of the risks posed by climate change.LimitationsOur report describes <strong>in</strong>terventions that countries have embraced to contend with the risks posedby climate change. We did not, however, perform a comprehensive assessment of adaptation optionsfor any given type of climate hazard. Nor did we conduct an evaluation, such as with the use of costbenefitanalysis, of various <strong>in</strong>terventions—an exercise conducted <strong>in</strong> many other studies. 19
21We acknowledge that some of our research f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs may be context-specific and that thereare limits to the comprehensiveness of the solutions presented. We also acknowledge the limitsof our national-level focus. In some cases, the governance of climate risks will require differentor additional measures beyond the <strong>in</strong>tegration of risks <strong>in</strong>to ongo<strong>in</strong>g national practices. Althoughnational governments can play an important bridg<strong>in</strong>g role, many adaptation activities are led andimplemented by local governments. Also, some national governments have power <strong>in</strong> the handsof too few and fail to engage civil society <strong>in</strong> decision mak<strong>in</strong>g. Ethnic, religious, l<strong>in</strong>guistic, andother identities may not correspond to national boundaries. A sole focus on national-level decisionmak<strong>in</strong>gprocesses may lead to maladaptation across borders, overlook<strong>in</strong>g certa<strong>in</strong> climate impactsand <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g exposure or vulnerability elsewhere. 20 In addition, the national level may not beappropriate for manag<strong>in</strong>g transnational resources. For example, ecosystems do not always liewith<strong>in</strong> national country boundaries. Also, our sectoral focus should not detract from the need forhigh-level leadership roles from economic development and f<strong>in</strong>ance m<strong>in</strong>istries, which we discussfurther <strong>in</strong> Chapter 5.Many of the conclusions are drawn primarily from the research carried out specifically for thisreport. Proven examples of what works are few and far between, and monitor<strong>in</strong>g and evaluationof outcomes is often weak. 21 The lessons we draw from our case studies can be highly contextspecific.Likewise, Chapters 3 through 7 are not designed to give a comprehensive treatment ofpublic engagement and other elements but, rather, to highlight useful lessons, examples, andoptions stemm<strong>in</strong>g from our research.To complement our research, we assessed literature on adaptive governance, 22 uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, 23capacities and pr<strong>in</strong>ciples for adaptation decision mak<strong>in</strong>g, 24 risk management, and decision-mak<strong>in</strong>gtools for complex problem solv<strong>in</strong>g. We build upon this literature, with the hope of mak<strong>in</strong>g itmore accessible and concrete to planners and policymakers, highlight<strong>in</strong>g detailed examples of how<strong>in</strong>gredients for more effective decision mak<strong>in</strong>g can be realized on the ground.It is our hope that this report provides <strong>in</strong>sights that will enhance the capacity of governmentsto adapt to a chang<strong>in</strong>g climate.the adaptation Chapter title imperativedecision mak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> a chang<strong>in</strong>g climate
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2UNITED NATIONS DeveloPMent PROGRAM