Decision Making in a Changing Climate - World Resources Institute

Decision-Making CharacteristicsDecision making that reflects these characteristics will not always require reinventing the wheel.For climate extremes, in particular, much experience in advancing both responsive and proactiveapproaches already exists. Governments around the world have committed to improving theirabilities to respond to and prepare for natural disasters, drawing on lessons learned. 61 And theinternational disaster management community is now advancing best practices for integratingclimate risks and forging relationships with climate change adaptation experts. 62Risk management strategies, meanwhile, have increased the ability of countries to both reduceand transfer risk when dealing with extreme events. 63 For example, the Government of Chinadedicated over US$3 billion to flood control between 1960 and 2000. According to the WorldBank, flooding during this time would have caused an additional US$12 billion in damages 64 withoutsuch measures. When preventive measures are not adopted (which is often the case), thedevelopment of contingency plans and policies can improve the response to disasters by puttingsystems in place for relief and recovery. 65A greater shift in current decision-making processes may be necessary for some other typesof change. For heightened variability, flexibility is key. By adopting approaches that can adjust tochanging circumstances and new information, policymakers and donors can do much to reducethe vulnerability of people and ecosystems to changes in seasonal and inter-annual climate cycles.Some specific examples drawn from our research, and described more fully in later chapters,include government investments in continuous and comprehensive updates of decision-relevantinformation that can be regularly incorporated into adaptation activities.In preparing for long-term changes in the average state of the climate system, decision makerswill need to balance the response to immediate concerns, including basic human needs, with theproactive preparation for likely future impacts (e.g. sea level rise) that necessitate early adaptationaction (e.g. decisions on whether to strengthen coastal defenses). Many decisions taken today—especially those that are difficult to change, such as building infrastructure and instituting developmentpolicy 66 —will affect future generations’ ability to contend with the long-lived effects of achanging climate. 67Decision makers will also have to contend with the uncertainties that surround climate changeimpacts. If societies fail to plan for certain impacts and to adopt robust measures to deal withthem, investments could be wasted, and development goals undercut. Poor planning can also leadto negative and costly outcomes, such as building large dams to generate hydroelectric powerin regions where rainfall levels might decline, or expanding cities along coastlines that may bevulnerable to sea level rise, rather than inland.To avoid such outcomes, governments should design plans and policies to be robust undermultiple climate scenarios. One way to address trade-offs between short- and long-term policyobjectives and uncertainty is through incremental, adaptive policymaking that avoids both lockingin future vulnerability and closing off options for more aggressive action should the need arise. 68At a very basic level, for example, engineers can design bridges that can be raised should sealevel rise eventually exceed their original estimates (see also decision route maps, Chapter 6). Wediscuss these and other solutions throughout the report.The complexity of making effective decisions for a changing climate against a backdrop ofvulnerability and uncertainty surrounding its impacts calls for comprehensive planning and policyresponses. The next five chapters describe how adaptation decision making can be made moreeffective when the following five key elements, tailored to a changing climate are embraced: publicengagement, decision-relevant information, institutional design, tools for planning and policymaking,and resources.WRR expert paperDetlef Sprinz: “Only very wealthyand far-sighted societies will be able toafford and actually implement a fullyanticipatory long-term climate strategy. . . .Robust adaptive decision-making can helpfocus on the likely short-term decisionsthat ought to be taken in order to arriveat desirable long-term future outcomes.Taking short-term decisions that leave theoptions for benign long-term outcomesopen and create political, economic, andsocial constituencies . . . will enhance ourchances to reach that goal.”— Detlef Sprinz, Potsdam Institute for ClimateImpact ResearchWRR expert paperCarolina Zambrano-Barragán:“In order to face decision-making challengesin a context of limited resources,governments can follow a strategy used bybusinesses in times of uncertainty: reservingthe right to play in the future by establishingpolicies and measures that can help keepoptions open. This can help minimizesocial, political and ecological trade-offs andavoid committing to a dramatic strategyprematurely.”— Carolina Zambrano-Barragán, Climate ChangeAdviser, Quito, Ecuador35Change, VulnerabilityandChapterDecisiontitleMakingdecision making in a changing climate