Decision Making in a Changing Climate - World Resources Institute

Figure 2.2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Rainfall in Ethiopia31Percent rainfall variation around the mean806040200-20-40-60-8019851990Yearsource: The World Bank. “Managing Water Resources to Maximize Sustainable Growth: A Country Water Resources AssistanceStrategy for Ethiopia.” 2005.1995Rainfall variation around the meanGDP growth20002520151050-5-10-15-20-25-30Percent change in GDP growthChange, VulnerabilityandChapterDecisiontitleMakingExtremesExisting vulnerability shapes the impacts of extreme climate events. The poor often lack savingsand safety nets for cushioning against the havoc wreaked by cyclones, floods, and other naturaldisasters. 47 They therefore have far fewer options at their disposal and thus lower adaptive capacity.For example, since impoverished families and communities often have limited access to insurance,loans, and credit, 48 in times of adversity (such as the aftermath of an extreme event) theymay need to ration food, sell off assets such as livestock, or remove their children from school.Such responses can have cascading effects, not only exacerbating vulnerability in the immediatecircumstances, but also leading to longer-term vulnerabilities, such as chronic hunger and anuneducated population. 49Climate extremes can therefore significantly alter development paths, setting nations andcommunities back years or even decades. 50 According to the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP), “Single climate events can . . . create cumulative cycles of disadvantage thatare transmitted across generations.” 51 Repeated disasters can have an even greater effect, givingthose affected little time to bounce back 52 and weakening efforts to alleviate poverty. 53 Ethiopia,for example, experienced several severe droughts between 1999 and 2004. Research suggeststhat if the stricken communities had had more time between these events to recover by buildingup assets and borrowing, the rate of poverty in these communities would have been 14 percentlower in 2004. 54Heightened VariabilityThe ways in which heightened climate variability manifests itself on the ground are also determinedby vulnerability. Communities highly dependent on climate-sensitive ecosystems oreconomic sectors—agriculture, for example—are often more vulnerable to heightened climatevariability, such as altered rainfall patterns. Figure 2.2 illustrates how GDP closely mirrors rainfallpatterns in Ethiopia, where rain-fed agriculture is of critical importance to jobs, livelihoods,and food security. 55 Similarly, farmers have traditionally employed fire to clear land in CentralKalimantan, Indonesia, because there are few alternatives; the practice can lead to devastatingforest fires in years when rainfall is less frequent, a pattern that in turn depends on sea-surfacetemperatures and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle (see Figure 2.3).decision making in a changing climate