Decision Making in a Changing Climate - World Resources Institute

Characteristics ofEffective Decision Makingin a Changing ClimateResearch conducted for World Resources 2010–2011 suggests that theunique challenges presented by climate change will require decisionmakingapproaches that display certain characteristics tailored to thetypes of changes, uncertainties, and vulnerabilities described here. Inthe short sections that follow, we explore the need for adaptation decisionmaking to be responsive, proactive, flexible, durable, or robust,depending on the type of change at hand. Decision making that exhibitsthese qualities is more likely to be able to assess climate risks adequately,formulate plans that can accommodate uncertainty, and stand the testsof time and public acceptability. These five characteristics of the types ofdecision making needed in a changing climate are by no means exhaustive,however. A broader suite of principles of good governance will alsobe essential if adaptation decision making is to be effective and targetthe most vulnerable. 58Five Characteristicsof Effective Decision MakingThe Need for Responsive Decision MakingFigure 2.5 Five Attributes of Effective Decision Makingfor a Changing ClimateResponsiveProactiveFlexibleDurableRobustclim ate ch a ngeTImepolicy/pl a n33Change, VulnerabilityandChapterDecisiontitleMakingResponsiveA responsive decision-making process would advance policies/pl a ns after a clim atech a nge has occurred, to react quickly to the clim ate ch a nge.In dealing with the aftermath of extreme events, decision-making processes will need to reactquickly to information about the impacts on people and ecosystems caused by the event. Ideally, overtime, governments can move from responsive to proactive decision making—from disaster relief todisaster risk reduction and preparedness. Bangladesh, one of the world’s most natural disaster-pronecountries (see p. 100), provides a good example of such a progression in national policy.The Need for Proactive Decision MakingProactiveA proactive decision-making process will create policies/pl a ns in advance of a clim atech a nge that has yet to occur; the decision-making process prepares for that clim atech a nge and its impacts.Because of the cumulative nature of climate change and its long time horizon, the need to anticipateand act on climate risks early is especially pressing. Seemingly incremental climate changestoday that are not abated in the near term could manifest themselves decades from now as potentiallyirreversible changes. Examples could include the loss of glacial ice sheets, unique cultures,and species diversity, or the collapse of certain biological, physical and hydrological systems. 60Thus, decision-making processes must be proactive—anticipating extremes, variability, andlong-term change and their consequences—if development and environmental goals are to be met.For example, a planner may choose not to locate new hydroelectric dams in an area that modelsshow may be subject to drought in a decade.WRR expert paperSaleemul Huq: “Floods, droughts andhurricanes are well known phenomenawhich affect many parts of the world.However, preparing for the increasedfrequency and/or increased magnitudeof events is something we have only juststarted to think about (both at the globalas well as national level). . . . The paradigmshift that is needed is to move away fromthe current reactive mode to a more proactivemode, or from disaster management(post disaster) to disaster preparedness (ordisaster risk reduction).”— Saleemul Huq, International Institutefor Environment and Developmentdecision making in a changing climate