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Institutional Accountability Plan and Report 2011/12Primary and Secondary School Enrolment Trends 3While the size of the NIC region 0-17 age group is projected to remain stable in the coming years,traditional age secondary school enrolment levels (i.e. grades 8-12) are projected to decline in NIC’sregion by 8.5% between 2010 and 2020. Most of this decline occurs by 2015 (decline of 9.4% from 2010to 2015). Marginal growth is expected in the remaining five year period (1.0% from 2015 to 2020).NIC Region Grades K-12 (Non-Adult) Projected Enrolment Growth (2010 – 2020)15.0%10.0%5.0%Grades K-70.0%Grades K-12-5.0%-10.0%Grades 8-12-15.0%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Grades K-7 -0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 2.3% 3.3% 4.7% 6.1% 7.5% 9.2% 10.6%Grades 8-12 -2.4% -4.3% -6.4% -8.4% -9.4% -10.1% -10.3% -10.0% -9.5% -8.5%Grades K-12 -1.2% -2.0% -2.3% -2.6% -2.5% -2.1% -1.4% -0.5% 0.6% 1.8%By 2020 grades K-7 should see an increase of 10.6% over the 2010 enrolment, representing about 1,100more students in K-7. The 8.5% decrease in grades 8-12 enrolments represents a decrease ofapproximately 780 students.3 BC Ministry of Education (May 2011). Report 1558B-2010 Projection Report for Public School Headcount Enrolments (excludes adults) 2010/11.Retrieved February 20, 2012 from http://www.bced.gov.bc.ca/capitalplanning/resources/databasesreports/enrolment/1558b-2010.pdf.18
Institutional Accountability Plan and Report 2011/12Labour Market Outlook 4Regional labour market demand is a key driver for post-secondary institutions to develop relevantprogramming that will help prepare the workforce and strengthen local economies.Overall Employment DemandThe North Island College region is projected to see a slight growth in employment demand over the fiveyear period from 2010 to 2015, with an average annual percent change of 1.3%. This is an improvementover last year’s projected 0.3% growth over the period 2009 to 2014.Employment Demand By OccupationIt is estimated that trades, transport and equipment occupations will be growing the fastest (2.4%) in NIC’sregion between 2010 and 2015, and will encompass about one-third (33.6%) of new jobs. Occupationalareas that account for most of the remaining new jobs are sales and service (21.9%), health (11.7%), andbusiness, finance and administrative (11.3%).The occupational area expected to shrink in size is occupations unique to processing, manufacturing, andutilities (-2.0% annual change). 5Projected Annual Growth Rates in Occupational Demand for NIC Region(Ranked in descending order by Actual Change)Estimated EmploymentActualChange% Share of TotalGrowthAvg. Annual %ChangeOccupation 2010 2015 2010‐2015 2010‐2015 2010‐2015All occupations 71050 75580 4530 100.0% 1.3%Trades, transport and equip 12490 14010 1520 33.6% 2.4%operators and relatedSales and service 19000 19990 990 21.9% 1.0%Health 5020 5550 530 11.7% 2.1%Business, finance and10520 11030 510 11.3% 1.0%administrativeSocial sciences, education, 5840 6270 430 9.5% 1.5%gov't service and religionManagement 6420 6790 370 8.2% 1.2%Arts, culture, recreation and 1660 1860 200 4.4% 2.4%sportNatural and applied sciences 3050 3190 140 3.1% 0.9%and relatedPrimary industry 4180 4310 130 2.9% 0.6%Processing, manufacturingand utilities2850 2570 ‐280 ‐6.2% ‐2.0%4BC Stats. (October 2011). British Columbia Regional Employment Projections, North Island College Region, 2010 to 2015. Accessed athttp://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/StatisticsBySubject/LabourIncome/OtherData/RegionalEmploymentProjections.aspx on February 28, 2012.5Ibid.19
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