“Computational Civil Engineering - "Intersections" International Journal

222 R. Scînteie, C. IonescuTable 1.Condition Time moment Slope10 0.000 0.55769 1.790 0.55768 3.586 0.55767 5.379 0.55766 7.173 0.55765 8.966 0.04914 29.322 0.14093 36.420 0.14092 43.518 0.14091 50.616 0.14090 57.714 0Starting from the table of the slopes the transition matrix can be immediatelydeduced. This is presented in Table 2.Table 2. Transition matrix10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 010 0.44 0.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 09 0 0.44 0.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 08 0 0 0.44 0.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 0.44 0.56 0 0 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0.44 0.56 0 0 0 0 05 0 0 0 0 0 0.95 0.05 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.86 0.14 0 0 03 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.86 0.14 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.86 0.14 01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.86 0.140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1The resulted matrix was used to simulate the behavior of a bridge over the lifetime. The evolution of is presented in Figure 7. The use of the matrices is a simpleoperation easy to implement in computation systems.The result of the simulation (doted line) closely follows the trend line obtainedthrough regression. For long forecast periods (over 20 years) one may see adifference. However, this difference is covered by data variance.