Civil Defense Systems: Social Impact and ... - The Black Vault

UNCLASSIFIEDDOC REPORT BIBLIOGRAPHY SEARCH CONTROL NO, /ZMML7AU- 6 2' 701 15/3 '4/1 12/2 18/3RESEARCH TRIANGLE IiqST DURHAM N C OPERATIONS RESEARCH ANDECONOMICSDIVA SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF SELECTEu PARAMETERS EASEDON 8 SMSAfSe(U)DLSCRIPTIVE NOTE: FINAL REPT., VOL, 2,oCT 6S 7,4P SINKH. ROONLYRLPT* NOs R-OU-1S7PROJ: RTI-OU-167TASK: 141I13LUNCLASSIFIED REPOKTSUPPLEMENTARYNOTE:DLSCRIPTORS: (*CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEMS, RADIOACTTVEFALLOUT), (*FALLUUT SHELTERS, CIVIL UEFENSESYSTEMS), (OUPERATIONS RESEARCH, CIVIL DEFENSESYSTEMS), MATHEMATICAL MODELS,PROGRAMMING(COmPUTERS), FEDERAL aUDGETS,RADIOLOGICAL DOSAGE, NUCLEAR WARFARE, COSTEFFECTIVENESS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS (U)IN ORDER TO PERFORM A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OFSELECTED PARAMETERS OF INTEREST IN CIVIL DEFENSESYSTEMS ANALYSIS, PRObABLE CASUALTIES ARE ESTIMATEDFOR B SMSA'S OVER A RANGE OF FALLOUT ENVINONMENTSAND SHELTER UTILIZATION PATTERNS# THE SELECTEDPARAMETERS ARE: SMSA POPULATION, POPULATIONDENSITY, ANG RATIO UF SHELTER SPACES TO POPULATIONIFALLOUT ARRIVAL TIME AND REFERENCE INTENSITYi ANDRESTRICTIONS ON MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE TO SHELTER,LEADING TO VARYING PATTERNS OF SHELTER UTILIZATION.THE SMSAOS ARE SELECTED BY 'JUDGMENT SAMPLINGSAND RANGE IN POPULATION FROM 74,OuO TO 408,000.THE FALLOUT ENVIRONMENTS uSED RANGE FROM AREFERENCE INTENSITY OF 600 N/HR AND 7 HOURS TIME OFARRIVAL TO A REFERENCE INTENSITY OF 3,OOU R/HR AND 1HOUR TIME OF ARRIVAL. THE MOVEMENT-TOSHELTERRESTRICTIONS ARL; (1) MOVEMENT RESTRICTED Tu THESTANDAPO LOCATION (SL) OF RESIDENCE, (2)MOVEMENT RESTRICTED TO nITHIN T4O MILES OF THE SLOF RESIuENCE, AND (3) UNRESTRICTED MOVEMENT ToSHELTER ANY6HERE WITHIN THE SMSA, ALSO, (4)THE TRANSPORTATION AL60RITHM IS USED TO DETERMINE THEOPTIMAL (MINIMUM CASUALTY) ALLOCATION OF PEOPLETO SHELTER FOR tACH TIML OF ARRIVAL AND REFERENCEINTENSITY COMBINATION, THIS ALLOCATION SERVES AS ABENCHMARK OF IDOALITY AGAINST 4HICH TO MEASURF OTHERPATTERNS OF SHELTER UTILIZATION.(U)62UNCLASSIFIED/ZMML7