Civil Defense Systems: Social Impact and ... - The Black Vault

- . - ... .. -7 - I_-_-•_-=UNCLASSIFIEDDOC REPORT BIBLIOGRAPHY SEARCH CONTROL NO. /ZMML7AU-639 751 15/3HUDSON INST INC HARMON-ON-HuDSON N YMETHODOLOGY FOR POSTATTACK RESEARCH. (U)DEsCRIPTIvE NOTE: RESEARCH RLPT@,AUG 66 46P AYREbtROBERT UsREpT, NO. M;-6q7-RR,UNCLASSIFIEDREPORTSUPPLEMENTARYNOTE:DESCRIPTORS: (*CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEMS, SCIENTIFICRESEARCH), BEHAVIOR, SOCIOLOGY, RADIATION EFFECTS,NUCLEAR EXPLOSION DAMAGE (U)THE REPORT UISCUSSES THE METHODOLOGY OF POSTATTACKRESEARCH. A HIERARCHICAL APPROACH IS DESCRIBED, INWHICH THE OBJECTS OF ANALYSIS RANGE FROM SIMPLEORGWAISMS AND ARTIFACTS TO COMPLEX HUMAN SOCIETIESAND ECOSYSTEMS. THE NOTION OF 'RESPONSEt TO APLRTURBATION AHICH IS APPROPRIATE FOR SIMPLE SYSTEMS1S EXTENDED TO ENCOMPASS THE WIDER NOTION OF'O!SUTILITYI IN DESCRIBIN4 THE LFFECTS OF A NUCLEARATTACK ON THE ECONOMY OR THE SOCIETY OF THE NATION ASA AHOLE. THE APPROPRIATE USES OF DEVICES SUCH ASSCENARIOS, GAMES, CASE HISTORIES, METAPHORS ANDOOELS FOR VARIOUS PURPOSES IS OISCUSPED@ THEMAJOR POINT IS THAT NON-RIGuROU$ CONSTRUCTS MAY BEEXTREMELY HELPFUL IN TRAINING. RAISING THE LEVEL OFTHE DISCUSSION, AND GENERATING INSIbHTS, BUT CANNOTBE uSED FOR PREDICTIVE PURPOSES AS MODELS CAN* A9STAT1-'F-TmE-ARTf ESTIMATE OF VARIOUS MODELS I1INCLUDED, (AUTHOR) (U)84UNCLASSIFIED/7MML7womm- a