national populism and slovak â hungarian relations in - MEK

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Zsolt GálNational Populism and Slovak – Hungarian Relations in Slovakia 2006 – 2009. Forum Minority Research Institute Šamorín – Somorja, 2009The following graph illustrates that populist, anti-reform and left-wingparties (judged by the type of economic policy they further) won every singleparliamentary elections in Slovakia since 1992 and always obtainedmore than half of all cast ballots.Graph 3Results of parliamentary elections in Slovakia between 1992 and 2006: continuousdominance of anti-reform and populist parties3500000300000025000002000000150000010000005000000MKM-EGY228 885KDH273 945Otherparties733 511SD453 203HZDS1 148 625SNS244 527KSS 78 419DS 98 555DÚ 246 444MK292 936KDH289 987197 453ZRS 211 321SD299 496HZDS1 005 488SNS 155 359Ostatné s.56 440ZRS 43 809KSS 94 015SDK884 497SMK306 623SOP269 343SD492 507HZDS907 103SNS304 839SDA 51 649137 022SD 39 163KSS 181 872HZD 94 324P-SNS 105 084SNS 95 633SDKÚ433 953SMK321 069KDH 237 202ANO 230 309HZDS560 691Smer387 100SDKÚ422 815SMK269 111KDH 191 443ANO 32 77573 659SF 79 963KSS 89 418HZDS 202 540SNS270 230SMER671 1851992 (84,2%) 1994 (75,65%) 1998 (84,24%) 2002 (70,06%) 2006 (54,67%)Note: The abbreviations in columns refer to political parties, absolute numbers refer to the numberof valid ballots cast for these parties, and percentages at the bottom of columns refer to voterparticipation (i.e. the ratio of participating and eligible voters). Left-wing populist anti-reform parties:HZDS – Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (in 1994 in alliance with the Party of SlovakFarmers), HZD – Movement for Democracy, SD¼ – Party of Democratic Left (in 1994 led theCommon Choice coalition), SDA – Social-Democratic Alternative, ZRS – Association of SlovakWorkers, KSS – Communist Party of Slovakia, SNS – Slovak National Party, P-SNS – GenuineSlovak National Party. Right-wing pro-reform parties: DS – Democratic Party, DÚ – DemocraticUnion, SDK – Slovak Democratic Coalition, SDKÚ – Slovak Democratic and Christian Union-Democratic Party, SMK–MKP – Party of Hungarian Coalition, MK – Hungarian Coalition,MKM-EGY – Hungarian Christian Democratic Movement–Coexistence, KDH – Chris tianDemocratic Movement, ANO – Alliance of a New Citizen. Subjects that are difficult to classify:SOP – Party of Civic Understanding, SF – Freedom Forum.Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic: Volebná štatistika. Parlamentné vo¾by[Election Statistics: Parliamentary Elections], 2009.The only reason why Mikuláš Dzurinda was able to form two consecutivereform-oriented administrations (1998–2002 and 2002–2006) was afavourable coincidence of political circumstances. In 1998, the entire spectrumof democratic forces (including left-wing parties) united against hard200
Argentina on the Danube...populists and formed a single ‘mother of all coalitions’. In 2002, the antireformbloc of populist parties saw too many of their voters’ ballots forfeitedbecause some of these parties split up and most of their smaller successorsfailed to get over the prescribed 5% threshold. 15Since 2002, Hungary’s political scene has been dominated by two principalarchrivals, the MSZP and Fidesz; these two parties combined for almost80% of all votes cast in the 2002 parliamentary elections and for 85% of allvotes cast four years later (Országos Választási Bizottság, 2009). In the campaignbefore the 2006 elections, both parties got entangled in a verbal battleof populist promises. Socialists boasted about social results of their rule thathad ruined the country’s public finance system; trying to play an equal card,Fidesz promised the 14 th annual pensions. The only party that had opposedintroduction of the 13 th annual salaries and pensions and warned about foolishnessof populist election promises, namely the conservative HungarianDemocratic Forum (MDF), struggled for its very survival and qualified to theassembly by the skin of its teeth, receiving 5.04% of the popular vote.Unless early elections are called, the upcoming parliamentary elections willbe held in spring 2010. For the time being, voting preferences indicate that thesocialists will suffer a crushing defeat while liberal free democrats (SZDSZ)will not even qualify to parliament. On the opposite side of the political spectrum,Fidesz stands a realistic chance to receive more than half of all votes;the far-right radical Jobbik party is also very likely to clinch parliamentaryseats with approximately 10% of the popular vote while the MDF will continueto struggle for its very survival. It is plain to see that disenchanted formervoters of socialists have not strengthened the ranks of liberals or conservatives(i.e. small parties with a right-wing economic program) but joined thecamps of the undecided, Fidesz or even Jobbik. In other words, disillusionedvoters of one populist party have joined other populist parties’ camps.This phenomenon is paralleled in Slovakia as the camp of HZDS supporterscontinues to shrink and the party is facing the risk of being relegatedfrom the assembly after the 2010 elections; like in Hungary, though,its former voters are joining the camps of other populist parties, particularlythat of SMER.The recent experience of Hungary and Slovakia shows that a failure of populisteconomic policies (i.e. general decline of GDP, employment, wages andincome) does not compel voters to reject populism as such; the worst result ofthe failure is dooming some populist parties and/or their leaders but their supporterswill join another party with a populist agenda. So, populist policies arecontinuously popular and politicians stand a good chance to benefit from themat least in terms of short-term political gains, mostly because of strong demandNational Populism and Slovak – Hungarian Relations in Slovakia 2006 – 2009. Forum Minority Research Institute Šamorín – Somorja, 2009201
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NATIONAL POPULISMAND SLOVAK - HUNGA
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National Populism and Slovak - Hung
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NatioNal PoPulismaNd slovak - HuNga
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ContentIntroduction................
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ContentZsolt Gál: Argentina on the
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iNtroductioNPolitical development i
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Introductionweapons, such as exposi
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Peter uèeò:Approaching National P
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Approaching National Populismpopula
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Approaching National Populismdirect
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Approaching National Populismmakes
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Approaching National PopulismThe fo
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Approaching National Populismas Slo
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Approaching National PopulismWhat o
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Peter UèeòNational Populism and S
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Grigorij MesežnikovNational Populi
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Kálmán PetõczNational Populism a
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Annex - Kálmán PetõczNational Po
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Annex - Marie VrabcováNational Pop
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BibliographyNational Populism and S
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List of abbreviationsNational Popul
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AuthorsNational Populism and Slovak
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AuthorsNational Populism and Slovak
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Political development in Central Eu
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