national populism and slovak – hungarian relations in - MEK

Slovakia since 2004...and accused its leaders of “betrayal of national interests”. Twenty yearsafter the Velvet Revolution, political representatives of ethnic Hungariansin Slovakia paradoxically seem to have returned to the very beginning, inthe sense that they are not evaluated based on their ideological orientation,political profile and professional and human qualities but on whether theyare ‘good’ or ‘bad’ Hungarians, whether they are ‘national extremists’ or‘opportunist collaborators’.The electorate of ethnic Hungarians in Slovakia is apparently not largeenough to support two competing parties. The quorum for entering parliamentfor a single party is 5%. It is highly improbable that both parties willbe able to reach it unless they form a coalition. Most–Híd hopes to attracta sufficient number of additional votes from Slovak voters. For the timebeing, public opinion polls indicate it might just manage; the party’s votingpreferences in September 2009, i.e. four months since its founding, fluctuatedbetween three and five percent while preferences of the competitiveSMK–MKP hovered between five and seven percent.A survey carried out by the Forum Institute for Minority Research inAugust 2009 revealed that the sample of ethnic Hungarian voters comprisedsympathizers of SMK–MKP and Most–Híd in the ratio of approximately2:1. 43 At the same time, surveys carried out by Slovak polling agenciesshow that voting preferences of both parties combined is not significantlyhigher than ethnic Hungarians’ overall share of Slovakia’s population. Allthese statistical data suggest it is quite difficult at this point to establish themutual ratio of voting preferences of SMK–MKP and Most–Híd. Of course,their performance and results in the upcoming elections will depend onmany factors. Very important will be the course and results of election campaignin Hungary where elections are scheduled to take place in April 2010as well as in Slovakia that will follow suit just two months later.The first acid test of both parties’ electoral potential was the elections toorgans of regional self-governance in November 2009. Before elections,SMK–MKP and Most–Híd did not form a joint election coalition in any ofthe five regions inhabited by ethnic Hungarians. The result was quite disappointingfor Most–Híd: they lost the competition with their Hungarian minoritypolitical rival by a ratio of 2 regional councillor seats for Most–Híd to 40seats of SMK–MKP. The ratio of the aggregate number of votes cast for thetwo parties was approximately 2:1 in favour of SMK–MKP.‘Slovak’ parties formed a whole range of election coalitions regardlessof the situation in the national parliament; not a single one of them includedthe Slovak National Party. What all this might entail for next year’s parliamentaryelections is extremely difficult to predict in November 2009.National Populism and Slovak – Hungarian Relations in Slovakia 2006 – 2009. Forum Minority Research Institute Šamorín – Somorja, 200991