NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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Table – 1 : Details of Predictors used for First Stage Forecast (SET-I)No. Parameter PeriodA1 North Atlantic SST Anomaly DEC+JANA2A3A4A5A6Equatorial SE Indian OceanSST AnomalyEast Asia Surface PressureAnomalyEurope Land Surface AirTemperature AnomalyNorthwest Europe surfacePressure Ano. TendencyWarm Water VolumeAnomalyFEB+MARFEB+MARSpatialDomain20N-30N,100W-80W20S-10S,100E-120E35N-45N,120E-140EC.C with ISMR(1951-2000)-0.400.450.33JAN 5 Stations 0.34DJF(0) –SON (-1)FEB+MAR65N-75N,20E-40E5S-5N,120E-80W-0.40-0.37Table – 2 : Details of Predictors used for Second Stage Forecast (SET-II)No. Parameter PeriodJ1 North Atlantic SST Anomaly DEC+JANJ2J3J4J5J6Equatorial SE Indian OceanSST AnomalyEast Asia Surface PressureAnomalyNino3.4 SST AnomalyTendencyNorth Atlantic PressureAnomalyNorth Central Pacific ZonalWind Anomaly at 850hpaFEB+MARFEB+MARMAM(0) -DJF(0)MayMaySpatialDomain20N-30N,100W-80W20S-10S,100E-120E35N-45N,120E-140E5S-5N,170W-120W35N-45N,30W-10W5N-15N,180E-150WC.C with ISMR(1951-2000)-0.400.450.33-0.40-0.30-0.4035
Page 2: NEW STATISTICAL MODELS FORLONG RANG
Page 5 and 6: For the long range forecasting (LRF
Page 9 and 10: computed as the average of surface
Page 11: tropical Pacific Ocean in boreal wi
Page 14 and 15: to a model with smallest model size
Page 16 and 17: using the best development period a
Page 18 and 19: the most “interesting” projecti
Page 20 and 21: Where, Net j denotes the weighted s
Page 22 and 23: The climatological forecast for a g
Page 24 and 25: period of 1981-2004 were 6.89% and
Page 26 and 27: chance of failure but no guarantee
Page 28 and 29: EMR-II were based on the data of 19
Page 30 and 31: ReferencesAngell J. K., 1981, Compa
Page 32 and 33: Iyengar R.N and Raghukanth, S.T.G.,
Page 34 and 35: Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K. a
Page 38 and 39: Table - 3 : Inter-correlation among
Page 40 and 41: Table - 8: Model statistics of the
Page 42 and 43: SE INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALYSTD. ISM
Page 44 and 45: N. ATLANTIC MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR32
Page 46 and 47: ADJUSTED R-SQUARE Vs MODEL SIZE: DA
Page 48 and 49: PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL: JUNE
Page 50 and 51: 25PERFORMANCE OF ANN MODELS FOR THE

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