NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL: JUNE FORECASTS2520RAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)151050-5-10-15-20-2519811982198319841985198619871988198919901991ACTUALMODEL1MODEL3MODEL519921993199419951996YEARENS_AVEMODEL2MODEL4199719981999200020012002200320042005Fig. 8. Performance of Ensemble MR Model for April ForecastsPERFORMANCE OF PCR MODELSRAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)2520151050-5-10-15-20-2519741976197819801982198419861988YEAR19901992199419961998200020022004ACTUAL PCR-I PCR-IIFig. 9. Performance of PCR Model Forecasts46
Fig. 10. The left figure shows graph between linear combination of firstprojection and the predictand. Right figure shows graph between linearcombination of second projection and residuals25PERFORMANCE OF PPR MODELS FOR THEPREDICTION OF ALL INDIA SEASONAL RAINFALLRAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)20151050-5-10-15-20Fig.11-2519741976197819801982198419861988YEAR19901992199419961998200020022004ACTUAL PPR-I PPR-IIFig.11. Performance of PPR Model Forecasts47
Page 2: NEW STATISTICAL MODELS FORLONG RANG
Page 5 and 6: For the long range forecasting (LRF
Page 9 and 10: computed as the average of surface
Page 11: tropical Pacific Ocean in boreal wi
Page 14 and 15: to a model with smallest model size
Page 16 and 17: using the best development period a
Page 18 and 19: the most “interesting” projecti
Page 20 and 21: Where, Net j denotes the weighted s
Page 22 and 23: The climatological forecast for a g
Page 24 and 25: period of 1981-2004 were 6.89% and
Page 26 and 27: chance of failure but no guarantee
Page 28 and 29: EMR-II were based on the data of 19
Page 30 and 31: ReferencesAngell J. K., 1981, Compa
Page 32 and 33: Iyengar R.N and Raghukanth, S.T.G.,
Page 34 and 35: Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K. a
Page 36 and 37: Walker, G. T., 1923, Correlation in
Page 38 and 39: Table - 3 : Inter-correlation among
Page 40 and 41: Table - 8: Model statistics of the
Page 42 and 43: SE INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALYSTD. ISM
Page 44 and 45: N. ATLANTIC MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR32
Page 46 and 47: ADJUSTED R-SQUARE Vs MODEL SIZE: DA
Page 50 and 51: 25PERFORMANCE OF ANN MODELS FOR THE

NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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