NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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25PERFORMANCE OF ANN MODELS FOR THEPREDICTION OF ALL INDIA SEASONAL RAINFALL20151050-5-10-15-20-251974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004RAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)YEARACTUAL ANN-I ANN-IIFig.12. Performance of ANN Model ForecastsPERFORMANCE OF SUPER ENSEMBLE MODEL2520RAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)151050-5-10-15-20-251974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989YEAR199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004ACTUALEMR-IPPR-ISUPER_ENS_AVEPCR-IANN-IFig.13. Performance of Super Ensemble Model for April Forecasts48
25PERFORMANCE OF SUPER ENSEMBLE MODEL:JUNE FORECASTSRAINFALL (% DEP. FROM LPA)20151050-5-10-15-20-251981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993YEAR19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004ACTUAL ENS_AVE EMR-IIPCR-II PPR-II ANN-IIFig.14. Performance of Super Ensemble Model for June Forecasts49
Page 2: NEW STATISTICAL MODELS FORLONG RANG
Page 5 and 6: For the long range forecasting (LRF
Page 9 and 10: computed as the average of surface
Page 11: tropical Pacific Ocean in boreal wi
Page 14 and 15: to a model with smallest model size
Page 16 and 17: using the best development period a
Page 18 and 19: the most “interesting” projecti
Page 20 and 21: Where, Net j denotes the weighted s
Page 22 and 23: The climatological forecast for a g
Page 24 and 25: period of 1981-2004 were 6.89% and
Page 26 and 27: chance of failure but no guarantee
Page 28 and 29: EMR-II were based on the data of 19
Page 30 and 31: ReferencesAngell J. K., 1981, Compa
Page 32 and 33: Iyengar R.N and Raghukanth, S.T.G.,
Page 34 and 35: Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K. a
Page 36 and 37: Walker, G. T., 1923, Correlation in
Page 38 and 39: Table - 3 : Inter-correlation among
Page 40 and 41: Table - 8: Model statistics of the
Page 42 and 43: SE INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALYSTD. ISM
Page 44 and 45: N. ATLANTIC MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR32
Page 46 and 47: ADJUSTED R-SQUARE Vs MODEL SIZE: DA
Page 48 and 49: PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL: JUNE

NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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