NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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SE INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALYSTD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3STD. SST ANOMALYEAST ASIA MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4STD. MSLP ANOMALYNW EUROPE SUR.AIR TEMP. ANOM.STD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3STD. SUR. AIR TEMP. ANOMALYFig. 2. (contd.) Scatter plots of the ISMR against the 9 predictorsof SET-I & SET-II40
N. EUROPE MSLP TENDENCY ANOM.STD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-2 -1 0 1 2STD. MSLP TENDENCY ANOMALYWARM WATER VOLUME ANOM.STD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3STD. WWV ANOMALYNINO3.4 SST ANOMALYSTD. ISMR3210-1-2-3-2 -1 0 1 2STD. SST ANOMALYFig. 2. (contd.) Scatter plots of the ISMR against the 9 predictorsof SET-I & SET-II41
Page 2: NEW STATISTICAL MODELS FORLONG RANG
Page 5 and 6: For the long range forecasting (LRF
Page 9 and 10: computed as the average of surface
Page 11: tropical Pacific Ocean in boreal wi
Page 14 and 15: to a model with smallest model size
Page 16 and 17: using the best development period a
Page 18 and 19: the most “interesting” projecti
Page 20 and 21: Where, Net j denotes the weighted s
Page 22 and 23: The climatological forecast for a g
Page 24 and 25: period of 1981-2004 were 6.89% and
Page 26 and 27: chance of failure but no guarantee
Page 28 and 29: EMR-II were based on the data of 19
Page 30 and 31: ReferencesAngell J. K., 1981, Compa
Page 32 and 33: Iyengar R.N and Raghukanth, S.T.G.,
Page 34 and 35: Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K. a
Page 36 and 37: Walker, G. T., 1923, Correlation in
Page 38 and 39: Table - 3 : Inter-correlation among
Page 40 and 41: Table - 8: Model statistics of the
Page 44 and 45: N. ATLANTIC MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR32
Page 46 and 47: ADJUSTED R-SQUARE Vs MODEL SIZE: DA
Page 48 and 49: PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL: JUNE
Page 50 and 51: 25PERFORMANCE OF ANN MODELS FOR THE

NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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