NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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Table - 8: Model statistics of the Artificial Neural Network Models (ANN-I and ANN-II).ModelC.CModel Performance ParametersBias(% of LPA)RMSE(% of LPA)1974-20041981-20041974-20041981-20041974-20041981-2004ANN-I 0.79 0.80 3.4 4.84 7.32 7.68ANN-II 0.83 -0.25 5.54Table - 9: Model statistics of the Super Ensemble Models (SEM-I and SEM-II).ModelC.CModel Performance ParametersBias(% of LPA)RMSE(% of LPA)1974-20041981-20041974-20041981-20041974-20041981-2004first Stage 0.84 0.86 2.89 4.44 6.51 6.88secondStage 0.83 -0.20 5.69Table - 10: Experimental forecasts for the 2005 Seasonal (June –September) Indian SummerMonsoon Rainfall for the country as whole by various models developed in the study.Modelfirst StageForecast(% of LPA)secondStageForecast(% of LPA)Empirical Multiple Regression (EMR) 101 102Principle Component Regression (PCR) 103 104Projection Pursuit Regression (PPR) 101 107Artificial Neural Network (ANN) 103 104Super Ensemble Model (SEM) 102 10438
Fig.1. Geographical locations of the 9 predictors used3N. ATLANTIC SST ANOMALY2STD. ISMR10-1-2-3-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3STD. SST ANOMALYFig.2. Scatter plots of the ISMR against the 9 predictorsof SET-I & SET-II39
Page 2: NEW STATISTICAL MODELS FORLONG RANG
Page 5 and 6: For the long range forecasting (LRF
Page 9 and 10: computed as the average of surface
Page 11: tropical Pacific Ocean in boreal wi
Page 14 and 15: to a model with smallest model size
Page 16 and 17: using the best development period a
Page 18 and 19: the most “interesting” projecti
Page 20 and 21: Where, Net j denotes the weighted s
Page 22 and 23: The climatological forecast for a g
Page 24 and 25: period of 1981-2004 were 6.89% and
Page 26 and 27: chance of failure but no guarantee
Page 28 and 29: EMR-II were based on the data of 19
Page 30 and 31: ReferencesAngell J. K., 1981, Compa
Page 32 and 33: Iyengar R.N and Raghukanth, S.T.G.,
Page 34 and 35: Parthasarathy, B., Rupa Kumar, K. a
Page 36 and 37: Walker, G. T., 1923, Correlation in
Page 38 and 39: Table - 3 : Inter-correlation among
Page 42 and 43: SE INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALYSTD. ISM
Page 44 and 45: N. ATLANTIC MSLP ANOMALYSTD. ISMR32
Page 46 and 47: ADJUSTED R-SQUARE Vs MODEL SIZE: DA
Page 48 and 49: PERFORMANCE OF ENSEMBLE MODEL: JUNE
Page 50 and 51: 25PERFORMANCE OF ANN MODELS FOR THE

NCC Report No. 1 - (IMD), Pune

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