Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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32 Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025Table 4-4. Distribution of operating revenues and expenses —Regions of airline registration (1985 1 and 2005)(Total services of scheduled airlines of ICAO Contracting States)YearOperating revenues Operating expenses Operating resultDollars(millions)Per centof worldDollars(millions)Per centof worldDollars(millions)Per cent ofoperatingrevenuesAfrica 1985 3 840 3.4 3 890 3.6 –50 –1.32005 9 400 2.3 9 760 2.4 –360 –3.8Asia and Pacific 1985 19 100 17.0 18 100 16.8 1 000 5.22005 92 200 22.3 90 740 22.2 1 460 1.6Europe 1985 27 800 24.8 26 400 24.4 1 400 5.02005 129 780 31.4 126 800 31.0 2 980 2.3Latin America and Caribbean 1985 5 530 4.9 5 500 5.1 30 0.52005 17 370 4.9 17 230 5.1 140 0.8Middle East 1985 5 200 4.7 5 100 4.7 100 1.92005 16 320 3.9 15 950 3.9 370 2.3North America 1985 50 730 45.2 49 110 45.4 1 620 3.22005 148 180 35.9 148 460 36.3 –280 –0.2World 2 1985 112 200 100.0 108 100 100.0 4 100 3.72005 413 300 100.0 409 000 100.0 4 310 1.01. Excluding domestic operations of airlines registered in the former USSR.2. World totals have been rounded to the nearest hundred.Source: ICAO Digests of Statistics, Series F — Financial Data.OUTLOOK10. The prospects for airline yields are closely related to cost developments and market conditions in theairline industry. Faced with increasing competition, airlines had to define and implement aggressive cost-cuttingand productivity-improvement measures with particular focus on ticketing, sales and promotion (notably inconnection with product distribution), and general/administrative expenses. While some cost items are not undertheir direct control, such as fuel prices and user charges, airlines have put significant pressure on suppliers toimprove their efficiency. Over the forecast period 2005–2025, the airline industry is likely to continue improvingefficiency through productivity gains, but unit costs are not expected to fall significantly further due to factorssuch as fuel, labour and capital.11. Over this forecast period average passenger yields (fares) as well as average freight yields (rates) areexpected to remain constant in real terms._____________________
Chapter 5FORECASTS OF AIRLINE TRAFFICTO THE YEAR 2025FORECASTING METHODOLOGY1. As a basis for the preparation of the traffic forecasts for this study, econometric analyses were carried outof the effects of underlying factors on the historic aggregate demands for scheduled passenger and freight traffic.These analyses were used to translate expectations of future world economic development and future trends ininternational trade and average fares into projections of future traffic demand.2. More detailed projections for international and domestic scheduled traffic for the airlines of eachgeographical region were initially developed from the forecasts of total scheduled traffic by analysing historictraffic trends and market shares for the airlines, based on the individual geographical regions. These projectionswere reviewed in light of economic trends and other factors relevant to particular regions.3. The procedures described above relate to traffic forecasts in terms of passenger-kilometres performed andfreight tonne-kilometres performed. In addition, forecasts of the number of passengers carried and freight tonnescarried were prepared for total scheduled international and domestic services. These were derived from the forecastsof passenger-kilometres and tonne-kilometres on the basis of expectations of future trends in the average length ofhaul for the various types of services.4. Forecasts of passenger-kilometres achieved by scheduled airlines on major route groups were alsodeveloped. For a particular group of routes, the traffic forecasts took into account economic developments in theregions at either end of the route as well as other factors pertinent to the particular route group, such as historicaltraffic trends and demographics.MAIN ASSUMPTIONS AND ECONOMETRIC MODELS5. The following are the main assumptions concerning trends, over the period 2005 to 2025, in the factorsthat underlie traffic growth:a) a “most likely” average rate of world economic growth of 3.5 per cent per annum (in real terms);b) moderate growth in world trade at a “most likely” average rate of about 5.5 per cent per annum;c) no change in average passenger yields (fares) and in freight yields (rates) in real terms for the worldas a whole; andd) availability of adequate capital resources for the development of aviation and tourist infrastructure.6. On the basis of historical data, several econometric models were developed for scheduled passengertravel demand, for freight traffic demand as well as for various route groups wherever possible.33
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