Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025 - FILT CGIL Foggia

Chapter 1SUMMARY1. During the period 1960–2005, the aggregate economic activities of the world measured by Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) increased at an average annual rate of 3.9 per cent in real terms. For the period 1985–2005, GDP andGDP per capita grew at an average annual rate of 3.7 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively (see Chapter 3).2. Growth in air transport has been much greater than economic growth but is closely linked with it. Worldairline scheduled passenger traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms of passenger-kilometresperformed (PKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 5.7 per cent for the 1975–2005 period. For the periods1975–1985, 1985–1995 and 1995–2005, passenger traffic grew at an average annual rate of 7.0, 5.1 and 5.2 percent, respectively (see Table 2-1).3. World airline scheduled freight traffic (domestic and international) measured in terms of tonne-kilometresperformed (TKPs) increased at an average annual rate of 6.9 per cent over the 1975–2005 period. For the periods1975–1985, 1985–1995 and 1995–2005, freight traffic grew at an average annual rate of 7.5, 7.6 and 5.5 per cent,respectively (see Table 2-1).4. The growth in passenger and freight traffic demand over the 1975–2005 period resulted in comparablegrowth in capacity offered, while aircraft movements measured in terms of aircraft departures grew at a muchslower rate (3.1 per cent per annum, excluding airlines registered in the Commonwealth of Independent States)due primarily to increases in average aircraft size and in average distance flown per aircraft departure during thisperiod. Historical traffic trends are described in Chapter 2.5. During the period 1975–2005, average world passenger yield measured in real terms (expressed in U.S.cents per PKP) declined at a rate of 2.6 per cent per annum. Freight and mail yield measured in real terms(expressed in U.S. cents per TKP) decreased at a rate of 3.5 per cent per annum. During the same period, unitcosts (operating cost per available tonne-kilometre (ATK)) measured in real terms declined at an average annualrate of 2.0 per cent (see Chapter 4).6. Future growth of air transport will continue to depend primarily on world economic and trade growth andairline cost developments (which are in turn heavily dependent on fuel prices). This growth will also beinfluenced, however, by the extent to which the industry faces up to major challenges such as airport and airspacecongestion, environmental protection and increasing capital investment needs. The shape and size of the airtransport system will also be affected by governmental decisions, notably those determining the type and extentof economic regulation of airlines. Airline traffic forecasts are presented in Chapter 5.7. For the forecast period 2005–2025, world economic growth (GDP) is expected to increase at an averageannual rate of 3.5 per cent in real terms. Airline yields are expected to remain unchanged in real terms for theforecast horizon.8. World scheduled traffic measured in terms of PKPs is forecast to increase at a “most likely” averageannual rate of 4.6 per cent for the period 2005–2025. International traffic is expected to increase at 5.3 per centper annum, while domestic traffic is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent.9. The airlines of the Middle East and the Asia/Pacific regions are expected to experience the highestgrowth in passenger traffic at 5.8 per cent per annum through to the year 2025, followed by the airlines of the1