Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025 - FILT CGIL Foggia

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40 Outlook for Air Transport to the Year 2025REGIONAL FREIGHT FORECASTS21. The “most likely” forecasts of scheduled freight traffic by region of airline registration are presented inTable 5-5. The regional pattern of growth is rather similar to that for passenger traffic. Asia/Pacific and theMiddle East are expected to remain the fastest growing regions, although their forecast growth rates aresomewhat lower than the growth rates achieved during the 1985–2005 period.Table 5-5. ICAO scheduled freight traffic — Regions of airline registration (1985–2025)(ICAO Contracting States)Freight tonne-kilometres(millions)Actual2005Actual1985Forecast2025Average annualgrowth rate(per cent)1985–2005Regional share of worldtraffic (per cent)2005–2025 1985 2005 2025AfricaTotal 1 163 2 349 6 000 3.6 4.8 2.9 1.6 1.2International 1 070 2 256 5 870 3.8 4.9 3.6 1.9 1.3Domestic 93 93 130 0.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2Asia/PacificTotal 9 605 50 105 235 000 8.6 8.0 24.1 35.1 46.1International 8 589 45 070 215 000 8.6 8.1 29.2 38.0 47.6Domestic 1 016 5 035 20 000 8.3 7.1 9.7 20.9 34.6EuropeTotal 14 422 37 875 97 000 4.9 4.8 36.2 26.6 19.0International 11 589 36 981 95 900 6.0 4.9 39.4 31.2 21.2Domestic 2 833 894 1 100 –5.6 1.0 27.2 3.7 1.9Middle EastTotal 1 880 8 880 40 000 8.1 7.8 4.7 6.2 7.8International 1 808 8 764 39 750 8.2 7.9 6.2 7.4 8.8Domestic 72 116 250 2.4 3.9 0.7 0.5 0.4North AmericaTotal 10 638 38 803 120 000 6.7 5.8 26.7 27.2 23.5International 4 841 21 634 85 000 7.8 7.1 16.5 18.3 18.8Domestic 5 797 17 169 35 000 5.6 3.6 55.6 71.2 60.5Latin America/CaribbeanTotal 2 105 4 567 12 000 3.9 4.9 5.3 3.2 2.4International 1 487 3 777 10 600 4.8 5.3 5.1 3.2 2.3Domestic 618 790 1 400 1.2 2.9 5.9 3.3 2.4WorldTotal 39 813 142 579 510 000 6.6 6.6 100.0 100.0 100.0International 29 384 118 482 452 120 7.2 6.9 100.0 100.0 100.0Domestic 10 429 24 097 57 880 4.3 4.5 100.0 100.0 100.0Source: ICAO.Note.— Shares may not add up to 100 per cent due to rounding.
Chapter 5. Forecasts of Airline Traffic to the Year 2025 4122. By the year 2025, airlines of the Asia/Pacific region are expected to increase their share of air freighttraffic by more than 10 percentage points to slightly over 46 per cent of total world freight, a share well abovethat of any other region.ACCURACY OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS23. Previous ICAO forecasts tended to somewhat overestimate the actual passenger traffic growth whichremained nevertheless within the forecast margins, while freight traffic growth forecasts mostly matched theactuals. The accuracy of the most recent forecasts published in 2001 and 2004 could not be assessed given thattheir time horizon extends to 2010 and 2015, respectively. The accuracy of the other sets of ICAO long-termpassenger and freight forecasts is depicted in Figures 5-3 and 5-4. The last set of forecasts shown on both figureswas developed in 1997. Despite several unforeseen events including the Asian economic crisis in the second halfof 1997, the events of 11 September 2001, the war in Iraq and the SARS epidemic in 2003, actual passengertrafficgrowth for the period 1995–2005 was very close to the most likely forecast, due in part to the speedyrecovery in 2004 and 2005. This was not the case for actual freight traffic growth which was close to the lowforecast.SUMMARY OF AIR TRAFFIC FORECASTSBY OTHER ORGANIZATIONS24. Some recent long-term forecasts by major airframe and engine manufacturers of growth in worldscheduled traffic are given in Table 5-6. These forecast growth rates are in the range of 4.8 to 5.0 per cent perannum for passenger-kilometres, with freight tonne-kilometres generally forecast to grow at a slightly higher ratefor the period ranging from 2005 to 2026.2016Actual High Low LikelyGrowth (%)1284Forecast period01967–80 1970– 80 1982– 92 1985– 95 1988– 2000 1992– 2003 1995–2005Forecast publication 1968 1971 1983 1986 1989 1995 1997Figure 5-3. ICAO forecast accuracy (growth of passenger-kilometres performed)
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