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Regional climate modelPRECIS simulationRegional climate modelPRECIS projectionCrop yield modelling Climate modellingMeteorological stationobservation dataDevelop statistical crop yieldmodels (Chapter 4)Calibrate PRECIS projections(Chapter 5)Calibrated PRECIS weatherprojectionDrive statistical crop yieldmodels (Chapter 6)Crop yielddataProjection ofCrop yieldAssessment of projections(Chapter 6)PRESENT (1990-2010)FUTURE (2030-2050)Figure 1-3 Schematic diagram showing the approach adopted in this thesis for projectingfuture crop yield in Bhutan. The thick boxes are sets of data and dashed box are the workingprocedures. The present period described is from 1990 to 2010 and future period projection isfrom 2030 to 2050. Adapted from Ho (2010) Figure 1.2.4
1.4 Plan of DissertationThe remaining chapters of this thesis are planned as follows.Chapter 2 gives background information of climate and crop production in Bhutan. Italso reviews previous work on the crop yield modelling.The data used in this study, including meteorological observations, crop yieldmeasurements and PRECIS climate simulations, are discussed in Chapter 3.Chapter 4 explains the development of the statistical crop yield model using observedweather and crop yield data.Chapter 5 discusses the calibration of temperature projections of PRECIS RCM andexamines the future changes in the mean temperature of Bhutan.Chapter 6 describes the projections of the crop yield for rice and wheat using thecalibrated mean temperature projections.Finally Chapter 7 summaries the main results and recommends possible future work.5
Page 1 and 2: UNIVERSITY OF READINGDepartment of
Page 3 and 4: List of AbbreviationsAOGCMBCCFCRUDH
Page 5 and 6: Table of ContentsAcknowledgement ..
Page 7 and 8: List of FiguresFigure 1-1 Map of Bh
Page 9 and 10: Figure 5-5 Boxplots for JJA daily m
Page 11 and 12: Chapter One1 Introduction1.1 Bhutan
Page 13: al., 1998), as it depends on the ty
Page 17 and 18: Figure 2-1 Observed monthly mean ai
Page 19 and 20: productivity. The wheat is grown mo
Page 21 and 22: 2.3 Atmosphere and hydrological var
Page 23 and 24: 2.3.2 Rainfall and water availabili
Page 25 and 26: in Spain. Each of these five regres
Page 27 and 28: Figure 3-1 Map of Bhutan showing th
Page 29 and 30: The pattern of rainfall in 1993 and
Page 31 and 32: The crops are generally grown durin
Page 33 and 34: global temperatures (McSweeney, et
Page 35 and 36: assessment and adaptation due to cl
Page 38 and 39: ice yield (tonne/acre)0.8 1.0 1.2 1
Page 40 and 41: 19901991199219931994199519961997199
Page 42 and 43: Table 4-2 Parameter estimates and R
Page 44 and 45: Table 4-3 Parameter estimates and R
Page 46 and 47: Chapter Five5 Regional climate mode
Page 48 and 49: We now have to combine these three
Page 50 and 51: model JJA5 10 15 20 25 30model SOmo
Page 52 and 53: Figure 5-4 Boxplots for JJASO daily
Page 54 and 55: Chapter Six6 Crop yield projections
Page 56 and 57: BC projection. The projected rice y
Page 58 and 59: Chapter Seven7 Conclusion and Summa
Page 60 and 61: explain the variation yield of crop
Page 62 and 63: Ferris, R., R. Ellis, T. Wheeler an
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Lobell, D. and C. Field, 2007: Glob
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UN, 2011: The Least Developed Count
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