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Table 4-3 Parameter estimates and R-squared statistics (proportion of variation explained) ofmodel (4.1) and (4.2) for maize yield. Temperature and rainfall observation averaged fromMonggar, Bhur and Samtse are used.ModelCandidate variableR 2 1 2 0X P Estimate p Estimate p4.1 JJA mean temp - 0.07 25.21 -0.79 0.32 - -4.1 SO mean temp - 0.11 23.88 -0.97 0.20 - -4.14.1JJASO meantempJJASO max.temp- 0.09 24.55 -0.89 0.23 - -- 0.05 3.98 -0.11 0.39 - -4.1 Hot Day Index - 0.19 -2.08 0.11 0.74 - -4.2 JJA mean temp JJA rainfall 0.12 1.86 -0.05 0.54 1.5 x 10 -4 0.374.2 SO mean temp SO rainfall 0.17 2.98 -0.10 0.23 -4.3 x 10 -4 0.354.2JJASO meantempJJASOrainfall0.17 2.06 -0.07 0.43 1.7 x 10 -4 0.244.3 SummaryModel (4.1) with temperature as the only explanatory variable will be used for crop yieldprojection.As summarized in Table 4.4 the following temperature variables are chosen.i) For rice the JJASO mean temperature of Wangdue station will be used inregression model (4.1).ii) For wheat, the JJA mean temperature of Wangdue-Shelgana average will be usedfor regression model (4.1).iii) For maize, since there was no significant relationships between maize yield andweather variables, maize yield projection will not be carried out.34
Table 4-4 The selected parameter estimates and R-squared statistics (proportion of variationexplained) of the selected model for crop yield projections.CropsCandidate variables forX&PR 2 0 1 p-valueRice JJASO mean temperature 0.27 -1.25 0.08 0.02WheatMaizeJJA mean temperature 0.31 -1.17 0.07 0.01No significant relationship found35
Page 1 and 2: UNIVERSITY OF READINGDepartment of
Page 3 and 4: List of AbbreviationsAOGCMBCCFCRUDH
Page 5 and 6: Table of ContentsAcknowledgement ..
Page 7 and 8: List of FiguresFigure 1-1 Map of Bh
Page 9 and 10: Figure 5-5 Boxplots for JJA daily m
Page 11 and 12: Chapter One1 Introduction1.1 Bhutan
Page 13 and 14: al., 1998), as it depends on the ty
Page 15 and 16: 1.4 Plan of DissertationThe remaini
Page 17 and 18: Figure 2-1 Observed monthly mean ai
Page 19 and 20: productivity. The wheat is grown mo
Page 21 and 22: 2.3 Atmosphere and hydrological var
Page 23 and 24: 2.3.2 Rainfall and water availabili
Page 25 and 26: in Spain. Each of these five regres
Page 27 and 28: Figure 3-1 Map of Bhutan showing th
Page 29 and 30: The pattern of rainfall in 1993 and
Page 31 and 32: The crops are generally grown durin
Page 33 and 34: global temperatures (McSweeney, et
Page 35 and 36: assessment and adaptation due to cl
Page 38 and 39: ice yield (tonne/acre)0.8 1.0 1.2 1
Page 40 and 41: 19901991199219931994199519961997199
Page 42 and 43: Table 4-2 Parameter estimates and R
Page 46 and 47: Chapter Five5 Regional climate mode
Page 48 and 49: We now have to combine these three
Page 50 and 51: model JJA5 10 15 20 25 30model SOmo
Page 52 and 53: Figure 5-4 Boxplots for JJASO daily
Page 54 and 55: Chapter Six6 Crop yield projections
Page 56 and 57: BC projection. The projected rice y
Page 58 and 59: Chapter Seven7 Conclusion and Summa
Page 60 and 61: explain the variation yield of crop
Page 62 and 63: Ferris, R., R. Ellis, T. Wheeler an
Page 64 and 65: Lobell, D. and C. Field, 2007: Glob
Page 66: UN, 2011: The Least Developed Count

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