SWM - Mark Moore

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Discounted Dividends ApproachFigures in Millionst 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019DPS (Dividends Per Share) 0.66 0.72 0.77 0.82 0.87 0.92 0.97 1.02 1.07 0.66PV Factor 0.86 0.74 0.64 0.55 0.47 0.41 0.35 0.30 0.26 0.22YBY PV Annual Dividend 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.41 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.28 0.15Schweitzer-‐Mauduit's Discounted Dividends Sensitivity Analysis Total PV of YBY Dividends 3.888488978 Growth Rate PV TV Perp 0Cost of Equity 0.00% 1.04% 2.70% 4.05% 5.40% 6.75% 8.10% Model Value 12/31/2008 3.888488978 8.39% 9.92 10.5 11.86 13.73 17.28 26.69 123.72Time Consistent Price 4.40833923 9.70% 8.75 9.14 9.99 11.04 12.77 16.06 24.9311.01% 7.84 8.11 8.67 9.33 10.3 11.89 14.95Observed Share Price11/1/2009 $50.95 12.32% 7.12 7.31 7.69 8.13 8.74 9.63 11.1Initial Cost of Equity (YouDerive) 16.25% 13.63% 6.52 6.6 6.94 7.24 7.64 8.19 9.02Perpetuity Growth Rate (g) 8.10% 14.94% 6.02 6.13 6.33 6.55 6.82 7.19 7.716.25% 5.6 5.77 5.83 5.99 6.19 6.44 6.78Overvalued < $43.31 15% Analyst Position $43.31 < Fairly Valued < $58.60 Undervalued > $58.60 212
Discounted Free Cash Flowt 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Cash FlowFromOperations(Millions) 63.97 67.80 71.19 74.75 77.74 80.85 84.09 87.03 90.08 93.23 96.49Cash FlowFromInvestingActivities 141.8645 119.654178 125.64 123.12 128.05 133.17 133.55 138.23 143.06 148.07 153.25FCFFirm'sAssets 205.8306 187.4582122 196.83 197.88 205.79 214.02 217.64 225.26 233.14 241.3 249.74PV Factor(WACC orKe?) 1.0000 0.9187 0.8440 0.7754 0.7123 0.6544 0.6012 0.5523 0.5074 0.4662 0.4283PV YBYFree CashFlows 172.2170071 166.13 153.43 146.59 140.06 130.85 124.42 118.3 112.49 106.96Perp.Total PVYBY FCFFCF Perp$1,371.44 Schweitzer-‐Mauduit's Free Cash Flow Sensitivity Analysis $- Growth Rate <strong>Mark</strong>etValue ofAssets(12/31/87)BookValueDebt &PreferredStock$1,371.44 0.00% 1.04% 2.70% 4.05% 5.40% 6.75% 8.10% $451.30 4.95% 2.94 3.5 5.47 12.45 N/A N/A N/A<strong>Mark</strong>etValue ofEquity $920.14 5.60% 2.55 2.96 4.7 7.17 N/A N/A N/Adivide byShares toGet PPSWeighted Average Cost at 12/31 $0.60of Capital 6.25% 2.25 2.55 3.39 5.01 11.76 N/A N/ATimeconsistentPrice(11/1/88) 0.64 6.90% 2.01 2.24 2.83 3.83 6.62 59.68 N/AObservedSharePrice(11/1/88) 50.95 7.55% 1.81 1.98 2.42 3.09 4.59 11.15 N/A8.20% 1.64 1.78 2.11 2.58 3.5 6.13 79.83WACC 8.85% 8.85% 1.49 1.6 1.86 2.21 2.82 4.21 10.63PerpGrowthRate 6.75%15% Analyst Position $43.31 < Fairly Valued < Overvalued < $43.31 $58.60 Undervalued > $58.60 213
Page 1 and 2:
Schweitzer-Mauduit International,
Page 3 and 4:
Buyers Willingness to Switch……
Page 5 and 6:
Net Sales/Accounts Receivable……
Page 7:
Enterprise/EBITDA………………
Page 11 and 12:
Competitive ForceRivalry Among Exis
Page 13 and 14:
they spend money devoted to R & D.
Page 15 and 16:
The next part of our financial anal
Page 17 and 18:
Company OverviewSchweitzer-Mauduit
Page 19 and 20:
table also shows that SWM’s sales
Page 21 and 22:
Competitive ForceDegree of Competit
Page 23 and 24:
The size of the firms in the indust
Page 25 and 26:
Total Assets 3500 3000 2500 2000 1
Page 27 and 28:
Excess CapacityExcess capacity aris
Page 29 and 30:
scale in the industry is vital to a
Page 31 and 32:
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Pr
Page 33 and 34:
RelationshipsThe relationships of t
Page 35 and 36:
its product (indirectly), the threa
Page 37 and 38:
it is easy for them to dictate the
Page 39 and 40:
As far as the purpose of tobacco pa
Page 41 and 42:
Volume per BuyersThe volume a buyer
Page 43 and 44:
(SWM 10-K). Considering the overall
Page 45 and 46:
Cost LeadershipCost leadership mean
Page 47 and 48:
likely for the customer to return a
Page 49 and 50:
of pride in being the “the world
Page 51 and 52:
educing product costs. The governme
Page 53 and 54:
It is evident when reading the tabl
Page 55 and 56:
The second of the two accounting po
Page 57 and 58:
SWM for the most part does a suffic
Page 59 and 60:
Schweitzer-Mauduit and its competit
Page 61 and 62:
their economic activity. If firms h
Page 63 and 64:
contracts and, to a lesser extent,
Page 65 and 66:
The ability to do this gives firms
Page 67 and 68:
their sales in U.S. dollars to mini
Page 69 and 70:
Schweitzer Mauduit 2004 2005 2006 2
Page 71 and 72:
ConclusionThe accounting strategy a
Page 73 and 74:
Schweitzer-Mauduit2004 2007 2006 20
Page 75 and 76:
than capitalized. The only reason t
Page 77 and 78:
5 Δ Sales/Cash from Sales 4 3 2
Page 79 and 80:
Δ Net Sales/Accounts Receivable
Page 81 and 82:
Δ Net Sales/Inventory 30 25 20 1
Page 83 and 84:
0.3 CFFO/OI 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05
Page 85 and 86:
12 CFFO/NOA 10 8 6 4 2 SWM AOI UVV
Page 87 and 88:
200 Δ Asset Turnover 150 100 50
Page 89 and 90:
4 Δ Total Accurals/ Sales 2 0 -
Page 91 and 92:
ConclusionThe ratios examined above
Page 93:
of a firm’s financials. The firm
Page 96 and 97:
Restated Income Statement For ye
Page 98 and 99:
Research and Development Schweitz
Page 100 and 101:
New taxes on Net IncomeIn millions
Page 102 and 103:
Amortized Goodwill
Page 104 and 105:
obligations in the past five years,
Page 106 and 107:
1.200 Quick Asset Ratio 1.000 0.8
Page 108 and 109:
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008SWM 25.9881
Page 110 and 111:
comparison. A small ratio shows inv
Page 112 and 113:
6 Inventory Turnover 5 4 3 2 1 SWM
Page 114 and 115:
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008SWM 79.5248
Page 116 and 117:
Profitability Ratio AnalysisProfita
Page 118 and 119:
Operating Expense RatioThe operatin
Page 120 and 121:
15 Operating Pro`it Margin 10 5 0
Page 122 and 123:
Net Profit Margin 2004 2005 2006 20
Page 124 and 125:
Return on AssetsThe return on asset
Page 126 and 127:
40 Return on Equity 20 0 -20 -40
Page 128 and 129:
Internal Growth Rate 2004 2005 2006
Page 130 and 131:
industry average as much as it did
Page 132 and 133:
Debt/Equity RatioThe debt-to-equity
Page 134 and 135:
Schweitzer-Mauduit is at a low 1.61
Page 136 and 137:
Mauduit has stayed pretty stable th
Page 138 and 139:
it looks to keep declining, meaning
Page 140:
Gross profit is the next step in fo
Page 143 and 144:
Balance Sheet143
Page 145 and 146:
liabilities, we take the already fo
Page 147 and 148:
Statement of Cash FlowsThe statemen
Page 149 and 150:
Estimating Cost of CapitalCost of E
Page 151 and 152:
Size-Adjusted Cost of EquityThe CAP
Page 153 and 154:
The table below shows the liability
Page 155 and 156:
The cost of capital is the interest
Page 157 and 158:
declared overvalued. Prices falling
Page 159 and 160:
P/E ForecastedCompany PPS EPS P/E F
Page 161 and 162: Dividends/Price RatioCompany PPS DP
Page 163 and 164: Price/EBITDACompany Market Cap EBIT
Page 165 and 166: Price/Free Cash FlowCompany Market
Page 167 and 168: November 2, 2009 we had to calculat
Page 169 and 170: Schweitzer-‐Mauduit's Free Ca
Page 171 and 172: Now that we have calculated the tot
Page 173 and 174: subtracting the normal earnings for
Page 175 and 176: Long-Run Residual Income Valuation
Page 177 and 178: Cost of EquityReturn on Equity-0.14
Page 179 and 180: Growth RateReturn on Equity-0.14 -0
Page 181 and 182: Return on Equity RestatedGrowth Rat
Page 183 and 184: Once the industry analysis had been
Page 185 and 186: AppendicesSales Manipulation Diagno
Page 187 and 188: CFFO/ OI Change 2004 2005 2006
Page 189 and 190: UVV 2.170832 2.687889 2.78523 2
Page 191 and 192: Capital Structure RatiosDebt to Equ
Page 193 and 194: 3MonthRatesSUMMARY OUTPUT Regressio
Page 195 and 196: Coefficients Intercept 0.035115 X
Page 197 and 198: Total 71 0.987349 Intercept X Vari
Page 199 and 200: Total 35 0.775347 Intercept X Vari
Page 201 and 202: Total 59 1 2 0.939751 Coefficients
Page 203 and 204: Total 23 3 5 0.624714 Coefficients
Page 205 and 206: Residual Total 46 47 0.624852 0.848
Page 207 and 208: Residual Total 70 71 1 1 6 0.7615
Page 209 and 210: Residual Total 34 35 0.519917 0.775
Page 211: Price Earnings Growth(P.E.G.)Compan
Page 215 and 216: Price(11/1/1988)Initial Costof Equi
Page 217 and 218: Figures in Millions (Except per S
Page 219 and 220: Growth Rate RestatedReturn on Equit
Page 221 and 222: Return on EquityGrowth RateKe -30%
Page 223 and 224: Schweitzer-‐Mauduit Restated
Page 225: Heakal, Reem. "What Are Economies o
show all

SWM - Mark Moore

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?