Annual report 2008/09 - Axpo Group

Electricity prospects
In the fi nancial year 2008/09, Axpo
made further progress with the implementation
of the fi ndings of the “Electricity
Prospects 2020” study. In order
to eliminate the power supply shortage
and ensure security of supply, Axpo is
relying on a broad electricity mix: in
addition to energy effi ciency, hydropower
and the new energies, nuclear
energy remains one of the main pillars
of the diversifi cation strategy.
Rising electricity consumption,
falling production
In the last ten years, electricity consumption
in Switzerland increased by
1.7 % per year on average. This trend
is set to continue. Axpo expects consumption
to increase by 1 to 2 % per
year until 2010 and then between 0.5
and 1.5 % per year, primarily as a re -
sult of population and economic growth,
the increased use of electrical appliances
and the replacement of fossil fuels
with electricity for heating and
transport. The percentage of total energy
consumption represented by
electricity is likely to increase from
the current level of 23 % to 40 % in
2050. In the very long run, an electricity
share of up to 60 % can be expected.
Electricity is central to achieving improved
energy effi ciency and is therefore
the key energy of the future.
While electricity consumption
will continue to rise, the supply trend
appears to be the opposite: production
capacity in Switzerland will fall substantially
over the coming years. The
import agreements with French nuclear
power plants will start running out
from 2016, and it is unclear for how
long this privileged import of electricity
under long-term agreements will
still be possible before border auctions
are implemented. The operating life
of the Beznau and Mühleberg nuclear
power plants is also likely to end
sometime after 2020. In its “Electricity
Prospects 2020” study, Axpo con-
cludes that Switzerland is in danger of
suffering a power supply shortage
from winter 2011/12 if there should be
any changes to the long-term agreements
with the French nuclear power
plants.
Product mix diversifi cation
Axpo intends to sustainably close this
power supply gap in Switzerland –
in harmony with the economy, the environment
and society. It is relying
on a diversifi cation strategy that takes
account of the following elements:
− Energy effi ciency;
− The development, expansion and
optimization of hydropower;
− The promotion of new energies;
− The construction of new nuclear
power plants to replace the older
plants in Switzerland and the import
agreements for French nuclear
energy that will start running out
soon.
While electricity consumption
in Switzerland continues
to rise, production capacity
will contract over the next
few years. Switzerland could
face a power supply shortage
as early as the winter
of 2011/12.
Read more about the power
supply shortage at
www.axpo.ch under
“Knowledge/Engergy gap”.
Security of supply
Development of electricity production and demand in Switzerland in winter, in billion kWh
0 10 20 30 40 50
60
2005 2015
2025
2035
2045
High CH demand
Low CH demand
Nuclear energy EDF
Nuclear energy CH
Fossil/thermal
Hydroelectric power