Building Competitive Green Industries

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FIGURE 2.3. Market size through 2023 for 15 clean technologies in developing countries ($ trillion)$2.8$1.0Market value (US$ trillion)$0.9$0.8$0.7$0.6$0.5$0.4$0.3$0.2$0.79$0.67$0.48$0.1$0.0WastewaterWaterOnshore windSolar PVSmall hydroWasteElectric vehiclesGeothermalBioenergy (ex feedstock)$0.32 $0.31$0.26$0.19 $0.15 $0.14 $0.12$0.06 $0.04 $0.03 $0.03Solar CSPElectric bikesSolar thermalBus rapid transitNatural gas vehiclesBiofuelsSME shareNon-SME shareSource: Authors’ analysis.treatment 14 is increasingly becoming a publicpriority as waterways grow polluted and waterscarcity becomes a more salient issue. Investmentin the construction and operation of these systemswould come from the government or througha public-private partnership, and would beadministered by water and wastewater treatmentcompanies, including their suppliers, among whomwould be SMEs.Solid waste management 15 is also a growingpriority. In densely populated urban areas, soaringwaste volumes require organized public attention,and while solutions like waste-to-energy aregaining popularity, in poorer countries the majorityof low-cost, sanitary disposal continues to be14 In this report, the market size for water and wastewaterincludes the CAPEX and operating costs that are insidethe fence of the treatment facility itself. So filtration andpurification systems, cesspools, dewatering equipment,holding tanks, internal piping, and treatment chemicalswould be included, whereas municipal sewage systemsand freshwater pipes and pumps would be excluded.15 The market size for solid waste has two dimensions:collection (the costs of trucks and operating labor)and treatment (CAPEX and O&M related to landfillconstruction, operation, and decommissioning).landfilling. In this report, sanitary landfills areconsidered to be clean technology compared withthe most common alternative—open dumping—which carries a much greater ecological cost.Consolidating waste in landfill also enables landfillgas recovery, a low carbon energy generationtechnology, to be deployed.Lower-carbon transportation is a smaller butstill significant market, worth up to $456 billionover the next decade. These sectors often attractinvestment because of their co-benefits ratherthan because of their environmental outcomes.Bus Rapid Transit has proven to be an effectiveway of transporting a lot of people from suburbanareas and through increasingly crowded urbancenters with relatively low upfront capital cost,and are being built to accommodate swellingurban populations. Vehicles powered by naturalgas are more cost-competitive than gasoline anddiesel vehicles in many markets and generatesignificantly less carbon emissions. Electricvehicles are strongly supported by the governmentsof India and China, and Chinese consumers areleading the way in adopting electric bikes.22 Building Competitive Green Industries: The Climate and Clean Technology Opportunity for Developing Countries
The Regional PictureThe regional opportunities are diverse and highlydriven by both natural resource endowments andgovernment policy priorities. While investmentis large and growing throughout the developingworld, China and Latin America stand out asleaders (see Figure 2.4).Wastewater features in the top three opportunitiesfor SMEs across the entire developing world, withthe exception of China. Countries are investingheavily in wastewater infrastructure and services toprovide basic services to their growing populationswhile ensuring a stable water supply to growindustries reliant on water use. A number of therenewable and nonrenewable technologies are alsoexpected to present significant opportunities forSMEs as well and they are each discussed in turnwith the top three opportunities for each regionhighlighted in Figure 2.5.FIGURE 2.4.Clean technology market size byregion, and the shares of SMEs and non-SME($ trillion)Market value (US$ trillion)$1.6$1.4$1.2$1.0$0.8$0.6$0.4$0.2$0.0$1.56China$1.43Latin America$0.91Sub-Saharan Africa$0.88 $0.87$0.44$0.24AsiaNorth Africa &the Middle EastIndiaRussia and MiddleIncome EuropeSMENon-SMESource: Authors’ analysis.FIGURE 2.5. Top three regional opportunities for SMEsWastewaterSmall HydroGeothermalWastewaterSmall HydroWasteWastewaterWaterSolar CSPOnshore WindSolar PVElectric BikesWastewaterBioenergyWaterOnshore WindSolar PVWastewaterWastewaterSmall HydroWaterSource: Authors’ analysis.Chapter 2: Sizing Climate and Clean Technology Markets23
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Page 5 and 6: ContentsForeword ..................
Page 7 and 8: AcknowledgmentsThis report was comm
Page 9 and 10: Photo: Simone D. McCourtie / World
Page 11 and 12: Photo: World Bank.FIGURE E1. Growth
Page 13 and 14: FIGURE E3. Top three regional oppor
Page 15 and 16: FIGURE E7. Areas for government sup
Page 17 and 18: Policy makers, in particular, must
Page 19 and 20: Photo: © Arne Hoel / World Bank.Th
Page 21 and 22: Other adaptation technologies (outs
Page 23 and 24: Photo: Dana Smillie / World Bank.de
Page 25 and 26: Photo: © Simone D. McCourtie / Wor
Page 27: oad transport. What coverage there
Page 31 and 32: years, and heat and electricity fro
Page 33 and 34: populations with mini-grids, and de
Page 35 and 36: FIGURE 2.10. Size of the clean tech
Page 37 and 38: energy sources. India enjoys among
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Page 41 and 42: TABLE 3.1. Activities in the value
Page 43 and 44: Photo: John Hoggs / World BankChapt
Page 45 and 46: Photo: Ray Witlin / World Bank.Sola
Page 47 and 48: FIGURE 4.1. Solar PV value chainMaj
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.3. CSP value chainMajor eq
Page 51 and 52: Figure 4.5. Sectors in which Indian
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.9. Areas for government su
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Page 57 and 58: SMEs focused on adapting or making
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Page 61 and 62: FIGURE 5.3. Investment in clean tec
Page 63 and 64: FIGURE 5.6. Most common barriers fa
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 5.7. Areas for government su
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Page 69 and 70: BOX 6.2. Drying food to cut post-ha
Page 71 and 72: Government Policy IsSupporting the
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Page 75 and 76: BOX 6.5. SME opportunities in agrof
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of trust and openness, especially w
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(RETs). For example, high demand fo
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and technologies may be significant
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Country ContextThere is limited emp
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While policy change is not always a
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Photo: Boris Balabanov / World Bank
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TABLE A1. Market sizing methodology
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TABLE B1. Renewables value chains (
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TABLE B2. Water and sanitation valu
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Appendix B. Value Chain Breakdowns9
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TABLE C1. Entrepreneurship and busi
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TABLE C2. Innovation financeName of
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TABLE C3. Market developmentName of
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47 48 49 50TABLE C3. Market develop
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52 53 54 55 56TABLE C4. Technology
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61 62TABLE C4. Technology developme
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67 68 69TABLE C5. Legal and regulat
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Aurum Ventures. 2013. “Home.” h
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Department of Agriculture and Coope
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Global Green Growth Institute. 2014
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Kamal-Chaoui, L. et al. 2011. “Th
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Nyang’ori, Ruth. 2010. “Factors
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Sol Chip. 2013. “News & Events.
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Wollenberg, Lini (Research Associat
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©2014 International Bank for Recon
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