Building Competitive Green Industries

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Appendix A.Market Sizing MethodologyThe market sizing methodology has five main steps (further detail available upon request):1. Regional clusters were defined based on a variety of indicators that allowed for modeling of regionalopportunities amongst similar countries. This allowed country-level data gaps to be filled byextrapolation. The clusters group similar countries within regions, with India and China treated as standalone,both because of their relative uniqueness, size, and better data availability.2. A short list of clean technology sectors was created and the overall market value for each sector for eachregion was estimated using a variety of data sources, including: investment projections, installed capacityprojections, and national plans. Country data gaps within regions were filled by extrapolation using GDPas the main scaling factor.3. The value chains for each sector were mapped and the proportion of value in each segment estimated(for instance, 40 percent of the value is in major equipment; 10 percent in engineering, procurementand construction; and 50 percent in operations and maintenance). This was combined with the regionalestimates of sector market value to estimate the addressable market in each segment.4. The share of each value chain segment that could be captured by local SMEs was estimated. A ratingof Low, Small, Medium, or High was assigned to each value chain segment for each sector with acorresponding fixed percentage for each rating in order to estimate the value that could be captured bylocal SMEs. The ratings were based on the technical complexity and market structure of the segment andexperience in the United Kingdom of working with SMEs in clean technology across the value chain.5. All of the estimates were sense checked against existing global estimates and the findings from the casestudies. In the analysis of opportunities the subregions were reaggregated to more conventional regionsfor the purposes of presenting the findings.84 Building Competitive Green Industries: The Climate and Clean Technology Opportunity for Developing Countries
TABLE A1. Market sizing methodologyClassify countries into regional clusters (11 regions, 2 country stand-alones)Geography Population and GDP Innovation capacity Ease of doing business¸Develop regional market projections (15 technology areas)Investment projection per regionInstalled capacity projections perregion¸Map the value chain (lifetime)Regional projections extrapolatedfrom national plansMajor equipmentEngineering, procurement, and Operation and maintenanceconstruction¸Estimate the opportunity for SMEs (average)Technical complexity of value chainsegmentLocalization of activity¸Triangulate findingsAuthors’ analysisAppendix A. Market Sizing Methodology85
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Building CompetitiveGreen Industrie
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ContentsForeword ..................
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AcknowledgmentsThis report was comm
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Photo: Simone D. McCourtie / World
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Photo: World Bank.FIGURE E1. Growth
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FIGURE E3. Top three regional oppor
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FIGURE E7. Areas for government sup
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Policy makers, in particular, must
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Photo: © Arne Hoel / World Bank.Th
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Other adaptation technologies (outs
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Photo: Dana Smillie / World Bank.de
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Photo: © Simone D. McCourtie / Wor
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oad transport. What coverage there
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The Regional PictureThe regional op
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years, and heat and electricity fro
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populations with mini-grids, and de
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FIGURE 2.10. Size of the clean tech
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energy sources. India enjoys among
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Page 41 and 42: TABLE 3.1. Activities in the value
Page 43 and 44: Photo: John Hoggs / World BankChapt
Page 45 and 46: Photo: Ray Witlin / World Bank.Sola
Page 47 and 48: FIGURE 4.1. Solar PV value chainMaj
Page 49 and 50: Figure 4.3. CSP value chainMajor eq
Page 51 and 52: Figure 4.5. Sectors in which Indian
Page 53 and 54: Figure 4.9. Areas for government su
Page 55 and 56: Photo: Curt Carnemark / World Bank.
Page 57 and 58: SMEs focused on adapting or making
Page 59 and 60: Spectre International, also known a
Page 61 and 62: FIGURE 5.3. Investment in clean tec
Page 63 and 64: FIGURE 5.6. Most common barriers fa
Page 65 and 66: FIGURE 5.7. Areas for government su
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Page 69 and 70: BOX 6.2. Drying food to cut post-ha
Page 71 and 72: Government Policy IsSupporting the
Page 73 and 74: tailored at small scales to increas
Page 75 and 76: BOX 6.5. SME opportunities in agrof
Page 77 and 78: Photo: Curt Carnemark / World Bank.
Page 79 and 80: of trust and openness, especially w
Page 81 and 82: (RETs). For example, high demand fo
Page 83 and 84: and technologies may be significant
Page 85 and 86: Country ContextThere is limited emp
Page 87 and 88: While policy change is not always a
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Page 93 and 94: TABLE B1. Renewables value chains (
Page 95 and 96: TABLE B2. Water and sanitation valu
Page 97 and 98: Appendix B. Value Chain Breakdowns9
Page 99 and 100: TABLE C1. Entrepreneurship and busi
Page 101 and 102: TABLE C2. Innovation financeName of
Page 103 and 104: TABLE C3. Market developmentName of
Page 105 and 106: 47 48 49 50TABLE C3. Market develop
Page 107 and 108: 52 53 54 55 56TABLE C4. Technology
Page 109 and 110: 61 62TABLE C4. Technology developme
Page 111 and 112: 67 68 69TABLE C5. Legal and regulat
Page 113 and 114: Aurum Ventures. 2013. “Home.” h
Page 115 and 116: Department of Agriculture and Coope
Page 117 and 118: Global Green Growth Institute. 2014
Page 119 and 120: Kamal-Chaoui, L. et al. 2011. “Th
Page 121 and 122: Nyang’ori, Ruth. 2010. “Factors
Page 123 and 124: Sol Chip. 2013. “News & Events.
Page 125 and 126: Wollenberg, Lini (Research Associat
Page 128: ©2014 International Bank for Recon
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