Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of ...

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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program References 166 U.S. Climate Change Science Program 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW • Suite 250 • Washington, DC 20006 USA 1-202-223-6262 (voice) • 1-202-223-3065 (fax) http://www.climatescience.gov
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Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Synopsis ........
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Appendix A ......
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Chapter 3 Convening Lead Author: Wi
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II SYNOPSIS Weather and Climate Ext
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PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Weather and Clima
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ES.1, ES.3, ES.4]). Rates of change
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with human-induced increases in gre
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CHAPTER 1 kEY fINDINgS • • •
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Figure 1.1 U.S. Billion Dollar Weat
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BOX 1.2: Cold temperature Extremes
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Figure 1.4 Probability distribution
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For temperature, both the average (
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While many changes in timing have b
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Figure Box 1.3 Percent of area in t
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means of coping with changes and un
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societal factors. The National Hurr
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planning uses, where possible, the
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After particularly severe or visibl
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in demographic distributions and we
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CHAPTER 2 kEY fINDINgS Observed Cha
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2.1 BACKGROUNd Weather and climate
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Analysis of multi-day very extreme
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Reductions in Arctic sea ice, espec
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in precipitation, the increase in t
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Bowl episode but much longer, lasti
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fact, there has been little change
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mirroring United States changes. Re
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from eight stations in southern Son
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ainfall may be tied to tropical cyc
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to calibrate against existing techn
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andom errors in intensity. Taking i
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suggested that these sharp jumps ar
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an increase and are statistically s
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from storm surge and waves farther
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For the 55-year period of 1948-2002
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sity from the mid-1970s to early 19
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(2007a, 2008) analyzed data from th
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the greatest increases along the sh
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Very snowy seasons (those with seas
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from 1921-1995 indicates that the v
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data network, then using repeat sim
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CHAPTER 3 kEY fINDINgS Attribution
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to the identification of change in
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Warming from greenhouse gas increas
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3.2.2 Changes in temperature Extrem
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odology has not yet been applied ex
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Figure 3.4 Top two panels: Projecte
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is a major influence; during El Ni
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ut no clear trend in tropical cyclo
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significant trends beginning in the
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3.3 PROjECtEd FUtURE ChANgES IN ExT
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Warm episodes in ocean temperatures
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extreme in daily total precipitatio
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water availability. However, the co
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specifically for hurricanes. The id
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Other studies using comparatively l
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Vecchi and Soden (2007) have assess
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the trend depends on adjustments fo
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Page 131 and 132: CHAPTER 4 BACKGROUNd Weather and Cl
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Page 135 and 136: • • • The NOAA Science Adviso
Page 137 and 138: utable to climate change. However,
Page 139 and 140: Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
Page 141 and 142: APPENDIX A Statistical Trend Analys
Page 147 and 148: GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS GLOSSARy affo
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Page 151 and 152: REFERENCES CHAPtER 1 REFERENCES Acu
Page 153 and 154: Version 5.1 [Online Database]. Univ
Page 155 and 156: Caribbean: normalized damage and lo
Page 157 and 158: Bromirski, P.D., D.R. Cayan, and R.
Page 159 and 160: 2005. Geophysical Research Letters,
Page 161 and 162: ensemble of global coupled model si
Page 163 and 164: wave spectra under hurricane wind f
Page 165 and 166: Zhang, R., T.L. Delworth, and I.M.
Page 167 and 168: in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleachi
Page 169 and 170: Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins, an
Page 171 and 172: Miller, N.L., K.E. Bashford, and E.
Page 173 and 174: Tonkin, H., G.J. Holland, N. Holbro
Page 175 and 176: Oouchi, K., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshim
Page 179: Global Change Research Information
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