Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of ...

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FEDERAL EXECUTIVE TEAM Acting Director, Climate Change Science Program: ...............................William J. Brennan Director, Climate Change Science Program Office: ................................Peter A. Schultz Lead Agency Principal Representative to CCSP; Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ...............................Mary M. Glackin Product Lead, Director, National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: ...............................Thomas R. Karl Synthesis and Assessment Product Advisory Group Chair; Associate Director, EPA National Center for Environmental Assessment: ....................................................Michael W. Slimak Synthesis and Assessment Product Coordinator, Climate Change Science Program Office: ...............................................Fabien J.G. Laurier Special Advisor, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration .............................................................Chad A. McNutt EDITORIAL AND PRODUCTION TEAM Co-Chairs............................................................................................................ Thomas R. Karl, NOAA Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR Federal Advisory Committee Designated Federal Official....................... Christopher D. Miller, NOAA Senior Editor....................................................................................................... Susan J. Hassol, STG, Inc. Associate Editors............................................................................................... Christopher D. Miller, NOAA William L. Murray, STG, Inc. Anne M. Waple, STG, Inc. Technical Advisor.............................................................................................. David J. Dokken, USGCRP Graphic Design Lead ............................................................................... Sara W. Veasey, NOAA Graphic Design Co-Lead ......................................................................... Deborah B. Riddle, NOAA Designer ................................................................................................... Brandon Farrar, STG, Inc. Designer ................................................................................................... Glenn M. Hyatt, NOAA Designer ................................................................................................... Deborah Misch, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Anne Markel, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Lesley Morgan, STG, Inc. Copy Editor .............................................................................................. Mara Sprain, STG, Inc. Technical Support.............................................................................................. Jesse Enloe, STG, Inc. Adam Smith, NOAA This Synthesis and Assessment Product described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan, was prepared in accordance with Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for Fiscal Year 2001 (Public Law 106-554) and the information quality act guidelines issued by the Department of Commerce and NOAA pursuant to Section 515 ). The CCSP Interagency Committee relies on Department of Commerce and NOAA certifications regarding compliance with Section 515 and Department guidelines as the basis for determining that this product conforms with Section 515. For purposes of compliance with Section 515, this CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product is an “interpreted product” as that term is used in NOAA guidelines and is classified as “highly influential”. This document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or provide recommendations for regulatory action.
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3 Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research EDITED BY: Thomas R. Karl, Gerald A. Meehl, Christopher D. Miller, Susan J. Hassol, Anne M. Waple, and William L. Murray
Page 1: Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS Synopsis ........
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTS Appendix A ......
Page 9 and 10: Chapter 3 Convening Lead Author: Wi
Page 11 and 12: II SYNOPSIS Weather and Climate Ext
Page 13 and 14: PREFACE Report Motivation and Guida
Page 15 and 16: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Weather and Clima
Page 17 and 18: ES.1, ES.3, ES.4]). Rates of change
Page 19 and 20: with human-induced increases in gre
Page 21 and 22: Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
Page 23 and 24: Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
Page 25 and 26: CHAPTER 1 kEY fINDINgS • • •
Page 27 and 28: Figure 1.1 U.S. Billion Dollar Weat
Page 29 and 30: BOX 1.2: Cold temperature Extremes
Page 31 and 32: Figure 1.4 Probability distribution
Page 33 and 34: For temperature, both the average (
Page 35 and 36: While many changes in timing have b
Page 37 and 38: Figure Box 1.3 Percent of area in t
Page 39 and 40: means of coping with changes and un
Page 41 and 42: societal factors. The National Hurr
Page 43 and 44: planning uses, where possible, the
Page 45 and 46: After particularly severe or visibl
Page 47 and 48: in demographic distributions and we
Page 49 and 50: CHAPTER 2 kEY fINDINgS Observed Cha
Page 51 and 52: 2.1 BACKGROUNd Weather and climate
Page 53 and 54:
Analysis of multi-day very extreme
Page 55 and 56:
Reductions in Arctic sea ice, espec
Page 57 and 58:
in precipitation, the increase in t
Page 59 and 60:
Bowl episode but much longer, lasti
Page 61 and 62:
fact, there has been little change
Page 63 and 64:
mirroring United States changes. Re
Page 65 and 66:
from eight stations in southern Son
Page 67 and 68:
ainfall may be tied to tropical cyc
Page 69 and 70:
to calibrate against existing techn
Page 71 and 72:
andom errors in intensity. Taking i
Page 73 and 74:
suggested that these sharp jumps ar
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an increase and are statistically s
Page 77 and 78:
from storm surge and waves farther
Page 79 and 80:
For the 55-year period of 1948-2002
Page 81 and 82:
sity from the mid-1970s to early 19
Page 83 and 84:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a C
Page 85 and 86:
(2007a, 2008) analyzed data from th
Page 87 and 88:
the greatest increases along the sh
Page 89 and 90:
Very snowy seasons (those with seas
Page 91 and 92:
from 1921-1995 indicates that the v
Page 93 and 94:
data network, then using repeat sim
Page 95 and 96:
CHAPTER 3 kEY fINDINgS Attribution
Page 97 and 98:
to the identification of change in
Page 99 and 100:
Warming from greenhouse gas increas
Page 101 and 102:
3.2.2 Changes in temperature Extrem
Page 103 and 104:
odology has not yet been applied ex
Page 105 and 106:
Figure 3.4 Top two panels: Projecte
Page 107 and 108:
is a major influence; during El Ni
Page 109 and 110:
ut no clear trend in tropical cyclo
Page 111 and 112:
significant trends beginning in the
Page 113 and 114:
3.3 PROjECtEd FUtURE ChANgES IN ExT
Page 115 and 116:
Warm episodes in ocean temperatures
Page 117 and 118:
extreme in daily total precipitatio
Page 119 and 120:
water availability. However, the co
Page 121 and 122:
specifically for hurricanes. The id
Page 123 and 124:
Other studies using comparatively l
Page 125 and 126:
Vecchi and Soden (2007) have assess
Page 127 and 128:
the trend depends on adjustments fo
Page 129 and 130:
tropical cyclone frequencies compar
Page 131 and 132:
CHAPTER 4 BACKGROUNd Weather and Cl
Page 133 and 134:
the existing uncertainties in tropi
Page 135 and 136:
• • • The NOAA Science Adviso
Page 137 and 138:
utable to climate change. However,
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
APPENDIX A Statistical Trend Analys
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
GLOSSARY AND ACRONYMS GLOSSARy affo
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eforestation the process of establi
Page 151 and 152:
REFERENCES CHAPtER 1 REFERENCES Acu
Page 153 and 154:
Version 5.1 [Online Database]. Univ
Page 155 and 156:
Caribbean: normalized damage and lo
Page 157 and 158:
Bromirski, P.D., D.R. Cayan, and R.
Page 159 and 160:
2005. Geophysical Research Letters,
Page 161 and 162:
ensemble of global coupled model si
Page 163 and 164:
wave spectra under hurricane wind f
Page 165 and 166:
Zhang, R., T.L. Delworth, and I.M.
Page 167 and 168:
in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleachi
Page 169 and 170:
Huntington, T.G., G.A. Hodgkins, an
Page 171 and 172:
Miller, N.L., K.E. Bashford, and E.
Page 173 and 174:
Tonkin, H., G.J. Holland, N. Holbro
Page 175 and 176:
Oouchi, K., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshim
Page 179 and 180:
Global Change Research Information
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