Retiring Trident

Retiring Trident
concerned. As London is 4680nm from Pyongyang, such a missile could also target Seattle, USA
(4475 nm from Pyongyang) or Canberra, Australia (4640 nm from Pyongyang). Therefore, not only
is it extremely unlikely that the UK would be acting alone, it is also almost certain that some level
of regional land basing would be available to UK MPA / MMA and AAR to support the fleet – e.g.
Andersen AFB, Guam. Nonetheless, given the existential threat to the UK in the limiting case, it
would be possible to conduct a sovereign UK-only operation without MPA / MMA coverage. Ranges
generated by the Great Circle Mapper (www.gcmap.com) - copyright © Karl L. Swartz.
320 North Korean nuclear and WMD-associated sites shown are: Kanggye arsenal complex, Punggye-ri
Test Site, Sohae Missile Test Site, Ryanggang munitions depot, Taechon nuclear power station,
Tonghae Missile Test Site and Yongbyon nuclear research facility. The leadership sites are the 14
Presidential palaces at Anju, Changsong, Changsuwon, Hyangsan, Kandong, Nampo, Paektusan,
Pyongsong, Pyongyang, Ragwon, Ryokpo, Samsok, Sinuiju, and Wonsan. Due to the scale of the
map, some of the sites are superimposed.
321 Evolved SA-21 GROWLER SAM (S-400 Triumpf) brigade with a maximum of 384 ready missiles.
322 “UK becomes first state to admit to offensive cyber attack capability”, James Blitz, Financial Times,
London, 29 September 2013.
323 See “Rivet Joint”, Federation of American Scientists, FAS Intelligence Resource Programme, FAS.org.
Accessed 17 January 2015.
324 Australia is replacing the Collins-class SSKs under project SEA1000.
325 Canada is considering SSNs to operate under-ice to replace the troubled and ageing Victoria- (ex-
RN Upholder-) class SSKs. See “Canada may buy nuclear submarines”, Greg Weston, CBC News, 27
October 2011; “Canada’s submarine fleet never worked. It’s time to stop ignoring the problem”,
Michael Byers and Stewart Webb, The Globe and Mail, 11 June 2013.
326 Such an arrangement would mirror the German / Italian / UK Tri-National Tornado Training
Establishment (TTTE) hosted at RAF Cottesmore UK from 1981 to 1999, where Tornado crews from
all three countries conducted their conversion training together. TTTE closed when the mid-life
update programmes for each country made their national aircraft unique.
327 For RAN Collins-class problems, see e.g., “Study into the business of sustaining Australia’s Strategic
Collins Class Submarine Capability: Progress Review March 2014”, John Coles, Department of
Defence, Canberra, March 2014; “Engine troubles cripple Collins-class submarines”, Adelaide
Advertiser, 21 October 2009; generally “Australia’s Submarine Programme in the Dock”, Defense
Industry Daily. For RCN Victoria-class problems, see e.g., “That Sinking Feeling: Canada’s Submarine
Programme Springs a Leak”, Michael Byers and Stewart Webb, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives,
June 2013,
328 Interview D, July 2014; Interview A, December 2013.
329 An excellent historical example of this distrust can be seen in the 1965 Treasury imposition of a
£2,000m cap on defence spending by 1970/71 that lead to the cancellation of the TSR-2 strike aircraft
and ultimately the closure of the Singapore bases and the withdrawal “East of Suez” in 1971.
See “Britain’s Retreat from East of Suez: The Choice between Europe and the World? 1945-1968”,
page 54 – 58.
330 MoD may need budgetary cover to bring forward the existing decommissioning costs of the Vanguard-class
fleet if it were to be retired by 2024. Given that these costs are already budgeted for,
this could be brought forward under the budgetary doctrine of inverse capital End-Year Flexibility
(EYF) that this author pioneered with Foreign Office spending whilst at HM Treasury in 2001/02.
331 “Trident costs must come from MoD budget, Osborne says”, BBC News 30 July 2010.
332 The British decision to purchase Trident I C4 became a decision to purchase Trident II D5 in 1982.
See “Trident Nuclear Weapon Submarines in the United Kingdom and the United States: A briefing
by BASIC”, British American Security Information Council (BASIC), November 2013, page 1.
333 Trident Missiles, HC Deb 28 October 1980 volume 991 cc183-5 at 185.
334 “Carrier Strike: The 2012 reversion decision”, paragraph 1.9, page 12 provides a figure of £2.0bn in
2012, which was deflated to £2.1bn per ship in 2014.
335 Using the Universal Air Refuelling Receptacle System Installation (UARRSI)
336 “The United Kingdom’s Future Nuclear Deterrent: 2014 Update to Parliament”, www.gov.uk, 15
December 2014.
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