Retiring Trident

Retiring Trident
92 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 8.
93 Countervalue strategy holds at risk those targets a potential adversary values, and is the essence of
deterrence. By contrast, counterforce is the attempt to achieve a “disarming first strike” against a
potential adversary’s nuclear forces, robbing them of the ability to launch a devastating counter-attack
As such, it is closely associated with the notion of fighting – and winning – a nuclear war. See
“Living with Nuclear Weapons”, Harvard Nuclear Study Group, Harvard University Press, Cambridge
MA, 1983, page 92. The Harvard Nuclear Study Group consisted of Albert Carmesale, Paul Doty,
Stanley Hoffman, Samuel P. Huntington, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Scott D. Sagan
94 Cited in “Unacceptable Damage”, page 18, a 1976 draft minute to the Defence Secretary expressed
the criterion as ““we must be certain of being able to inflict unacceptable damage on Moscow as
the seat of the highly centralised Soviet Government system”, In December 1959, it was estimated
that Moscow required four 1 Mt warheads to achieve destruction of 50 per cent of the buildings
in metropolitan area. See “Nuclear Diplomacy and the Special Relationship”. See e.g., “Why the
Trident debate is (largely) one about symbolism”, Mark Urban, Newsnight, BBC, 21 April 2010.
95 Now Baron Owen of the City of Plymouth CH PC FRCP MB BChir.
96 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 13.
97 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 15.
98 Duff Group Option 1. See “Unacceptable Damage”, page 16.
99 Duff Group Option 2. See “Unacceptable Damage”, page 16.
100 Duff Group Option 3a 10 Soviet cities; Option 3b 30 single-warhead targets. See “Unacceptable
Damage”, page 16.
101 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 23.
102 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 22.
103 “Unacceptable Damage”, pages 26 – 27.
104 “Unacceptable Damage”, page 31.
105 Conventional buildings are normally destroyed by a 5-psi overpressure wave, which generates a
wind of 163 mph, stronger than all but the severest tropical storms and tornadoes. It was estimated
that ICBM bunkers may require up to 10,000 psi of overpressure in order to guarantee their
destruction. See “Overpressure”, atomicarchive.com, accessed 29 January 2015.
106 “From Polaris to Trident”, pages 147 – 151.
107 Counterforce is a nuclear strategy that emerged from SAC in the Eisenhower Administration as part
of their 1954/55 “New Look”. Counterforce is a first-strike doctrine under which one side attempts
to destroy an opponent’s ability to strike back by destroying all (or almost all) of their nuclear capability,
and in the process to provide the opportunity to win a nuclear war. Even after the emergence
of highly survivable second-strike forces (notably SBLMs on SSBNs), counterforce continued to enjoy
some support as it avoided the massive destruction of an all-out attack on an adversary’s cities
(so called countervalue targets). Counterforce was renamed “damage limitation” under the Reagan
Administration, reportedly because “counterforce” sounded “too aggressive”. See “Command and
Control”, Eric Schlosser, The Penguin Press, New York, 2013, pages 131, 133, and 434.
108 The smallest of the US ICBM counterforce ICBM warheads is the W-78 carried by the LGM-30G
Minuteman III with a yield of 335 – 350kt. See “The W-78 Warhead: Intermediate Yield Strategic
ICBM MIRV Warhead”, FAS.org, retrieved 28 January 2015.
109 The W53 carried by the LGM-25C Titan II ICBMs produced a 9Mt yield, and was in service from
1962 to 1987. See “Command and Control”, Eric Schlosser, The Penguin Press, New York, 2013,
page 3.
110 MX (Missile eXperimental) was the development programme for what became the LGM-118
Peacekeeper, a solid-fueled ICBM capable of carrying up to 12 W87 300kt warheads 5200nm with a
CEP of 90 meters. LGM-118 entered USAF service in 1986 at F. E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming,
in modified LGM-30 Minuteman silos, and was retired in 2005. See “LGM-118 PEACEKEEPER”,
MissileThreat.com, accessed 31 January 2015.
111 Polaris A3 in USN service carried a W58 warhead with a nominal yield of 200kt; the RN initially
used the ET.317 warhead (a UK W58 / W59 hybrid warhead) of 200kt nominal yield, before moving
a 225kt variant in the Chevaline warhead. Poseidon C3 used W68 warheads with a nominal yield
of 40kt. Trident I C4 used the W76 warhead of 100kt nominal yield, which is the basis for the UK
93