Retiring Trident

Retiring Trident
These estimates are deliberately conservative. This model assumes that:
1. the UK alone will bear the full cost of modifying the F-35A for B61-12
carriage to the F-35C, despite the fact that considerable amounts of
the work for F-35A should be able to be read across given the similarities
of the design, and the fact that the total costs of F-35A nuclear
conversion would likely be shared by the USAF and NATO;
2. no savings are realised from cancelling the Crowsnest radar system
when it is replaced with E-2D Advanced Hawkeye;
3. no savings are realised from cancelling the planned overhauls of the
Vanguard-class SSBNs; and
4. no savings are realised from closing RNAD Coulport.
Similarly, to account for the cost of starting UK production of an anglicised
B61-12 bomb, UK production is assumed to be up twice the cost of
US produced B61-12s, pricing 100 warheads at £3.0bn. It is not known
how much it would cost to provide nuclear command and control (C2)
for a free-fall force, but interviewees suggested that allocating £1bn for
C2 plus rehabilitation of the WS3 and SSA facilities at Marham and the
Honington SSA “should be ample”. 339
Switching to the CATOBAR F-35C from the STOVL F-35B offers superior
VfM in three ways. First, as the US Government Accountability Office
showed in 2014, at $142.6m per aircraft the F-35C is 9.1% cheaper than
the F-35B. 340 On a 138 aircraft buy, this change saves £1.2bn. Second the
F-35C is simpler and cheaper to run; the MoD in SDSR10 estimated that
F-35C through-life costs are approximately 25% lower than the F-35B. 341
Third, the F-35C is more capable, offering a 31% improvement in operational
radius and 9% increase in payload at maximum fuel over the F-35B,
significantly increasing its utility in the conventional role. 342
Given that B61-12 programme is proceeding and will be fielded from
2020, it is hard to envisage that if the TAR were repeated it would reach
the same conclusions. As the TAR demonstrates, minus the interim two
boat SSBN requirement, JSF with a new supersonic cruise missile is already
cheaper than three or four SSBNs 343 ; removing the costs of the missile
and warhead makes the free-fall B61-12 option cheaper still. Crucially,
as the UK is procuring F-35s, dual-capable operation effectively allows
the nuclear deterrence mission to free-ride on the conventional mission,
rather than requiring a very expensive single-role platform which itself is
heavily reliant on other enabling assets.
Therefore, not only would this change in policy significantly enhance the
UK’s conventional strike capability, recycling the savings of £4.8 – 13.1bn
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