Retiring Trident

Retiring Trident
Building on the UK’s 2013 Trident Alternatives Review (TAR), recognising
the changes in the international situation and the USA’s decision
to proceed with modernisation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation
(NATO) B61 free-fall nuclear weapons, CentreForum recommends
that the UK scrap plans for Successor-class ballistic missile submarines
(SSBNs) and move to a free-fall nuclear capability based on Lockheed
Martin F-35 Lightning II / Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) that the UK is currently
procuring and the forthcoming US B61 Mod 12 (B61-12) bombs that will
arm NATO nuclear Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA) from 2020.
CentreForum estimates that an alternative nuclear force based on 100
anglicised B61-12s, has a capital cost of approximately £16.7bn. This includes:
::
associated nuclear storage, command and control;
::
conversion of both of Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers to operate
catapult launched, arrested landing aircraft 5 ;
::
five additional Astute-class nuclear-powered but conventionally
armed fleet submarines (SSNs) to protect the UK submarine industrial
base and meet the full range of SSN missions;
::
four additional Type 26 frigates to support the carrier group;
::
six shipborne airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft
and four carrier capable transport aircraft (COD);
::
converting the 14 RAF Voyager in-flight refuelling tankers to receive
and to supply fuel via the high speed flying boom refuelling method;
and
::
eight long-range maritime patrol aircraft / multi-mission aircraft
(MPA / MMA).
Crucially, all of these non-nuclear investments will significantly enhance
the UK’s conventional force projection capabilities and precision conventional
strike capability, in addition to providing nuclear strike capability,
and protecting the UK’s submarine industrial base.
Our optimal solution saves a further £4.8 – 13.1bn 6 to reinvest in the conventional
forces between 2015 and 2032. 7 It does so whilst ensuring that
the UK can deter nuclear powers outside of the nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) beyond 2040, and hold many targets in existing UN Security
Council nuclear powers (P5) “at risk” over the same time horizon.
In implementing this package, the UK would be contributing to existing
NATO nuclear burden-sharing arrangements, enhancing its conventional
capabilities, and take a concrete step down the nuclear ladder and to-
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