Retiring Trident

Retiring Trident
Assessment:
::
B61-12 launched at 45kft, egress height of 100ft, initial
nose down angle of 55 – 75 degrees, egress speed 700
knots;
::
B61-12 launched at 45kft, level turn, egress height of 45kft,
egress speed 1026 knots.
::
There are a range of credible attack profiles that utilise the F-35C’s
stealth characteristics to delay detection until shortly before weapon
release, allowing egress at medium or low level.
::
The B61-12 RCS is unknown, and thus it is unknown how easy it
would be to intercept by the defences. For heavily defended targets,
the obvious riposte is to significantly increase the number of B61-12s
simultaneously in flight – 80 bombs plus 40 receding aircraft targets
on a range of attack profiles and egress headings would make the
defenders’ task considerably more complicated.
::
If priority were (correctly) given to the incoming bombs over shooting
down the departing aircraft, then two 48N6E or 9M96E2 missiles
should be fired against each incoming bomb. Assuming an 85% probability
of kill (Pk) per missile, each double targeted bomb has a 2.25%
chance of survival. If 160 SAMs are launched, this implies a near-certainty
than one and high probably that two B61-12s would reach the
target.
::
85% Pk is a reasonable worst-case scenario for the attackers, and it
assumes that the system is working optimally, and that there are in
fact sufficient missiles available to double-target each bomb. If this is
not the case, or if the Pk falls because of, e.g., difficulties in tracking
the low RCS, then the number of weapons reaching the target rises
rapidly. For instance, if all 80 were targeted by a single missile with an
85% Pk, then 12 of the 80 B61-12s would make it to the target.
: : Very low-level approach (