Retiring Trident

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Retiring Trident Figure 1: Hypothetical single Trident SLBM max-MIRV targeting example: Wolverhampton to Bedford Note: attacks are by UK W76 variant 100kt warheads airburst at 4,750ft in order to maximise the 5-psi overpressure area. Key: Inner ring (Yellow): Fireball: radius 380m; Second ring (Green): 500 rem radiation dose: radius, 1110m; 117 Third ring (Grey): 5-psi airblast: radius, 3260m; 118 Fourth (Orange): Third degree burns due to thermal radiation: radius 4380m; 119 Source: CentreForum analysis based Alex Wellerstien’s Nukemap 2.42 model. 120 27
Retiring Trident Figure 2: Hypothetical six 50kt warhead attack on Central London Note: Attacks are by 50kt warheads airburst at 3900ft in order to maximise the 5-psi overpressure area. Key: Inner ring (Yellow): Fireball: radius 380m; Second ring (Green): 500 rem radiation dose: radius, 1640m; Third ring (Grey): 5-psi airblast: radius, 1690m; Fourth (Orange): Third degree burns due to thermal radiation: radius 2870m; Source: CentreForum analysis based Alex Wellerstien’s Nukemap 2.42 model. 123 Most large urban areas would suffer unacceptable damage with two to six 50kt warheads. Figure 2 shows the effect of such an attack in London. In this example, it is estimated that there would be 0.51 million deaths and 1.20 million injuries, as well as widespread destruction. 124 More densely populated cities would have proportionately higher casualties: the same six 50kt warhead attack on Karachi is estimated to kill 1.86 million and leave 3.92 million injured. 125 Realistic fear of losses on anything like this scale would be unacceptable to all rational governments, resulting in deterrence being achieved. As a result, Successor-class SSBN’s Trident-delivered ability to destroy a minimum of eight cities with 14 100kt warheads each is a gold-plated solution that clearly overmatches the UK’s deterrence requirement. 28
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Page 3 and 4: Retiring Trident About the author T
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Page 23 and 24: Retiring Trident :: 2 - Deterrence
Page 25 and 26: Retiring Trident Since the establis
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Retiring Trident :: 10 - Recommenda
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Retiring Trident :: Field an additi
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Retiring Trident :: Appendix 3 Work
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Retiring Trident

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