GLOBAL FORECAST

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After the Ebola Catastrophe J. STEPHEN MORRISON AS 2015 UNFOLDED, THE WORST OF THE EBOLA CATASTROPHE HAD ENDED, LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A TERRIBLE TRAIL. Ebola has, as of November 2015, killed more than 11,000 (including over 500 health workers) and infected more than 30,000. Thousands of survivors today struggle with heavily impaired personal health, amidst heavily damaged national health systems. 124 | Center for Strategic and International Studies
There were many moments of exceptional courage, sacrifice, and impromptu brilliance. Doctors Without Borders (MSF) were true heroes, as were countless less well-known Liberian, Sierra Leonean, and Guinean individuals, civil organizations, and government health officers. Cooperation accelerated across governments, regulatory bodies, industry, and the World Health Organization to advance the testing of vaccines and antivirals. U.S. leadership, though late, was pivotal to bringing the outbreak under control: the U.S. Agency for International Development (US- AID) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) each distinguished themselves, fielded hundreds of American staff on the ground, and accounted for no less than half of the international response. The 2,800 U.S. troops deployed to Liberia were strategically important in breaking panic and opening logistical operations. Congress in December 2014 approved $5.4 billion in emergency Ebola funding, of which $3.7 billion was to complete the job of control in West Africa, continue to advance the development of new scientific and medical tools, and build basic health security capacities. Soul Searching Begins The global response, tragically late by several months and organized in extreme haste in late 2014, was, in effect, a $5 billion scramble. It unfolded amid widespread panic, fear, and chaos. Today, the outbreak is under control, though it persists at very low levels and the region may not be effectively cleared of the virus. In the course of this suffering and its aftermath, accountability has been elusive. It is difficult to name a single official—international, national or otherwise—who was fired. Ebola also triggered considerable introspection in 2015 by no fewer than four international panels. 1 Many feel, it seems, that this historical—and preventable—failure warrants in-depth introspection and a concrete plan of action for the future. I served on the Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola, organized by the Harvard Global Health Institute and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, which released its full report in November. The panel struggled with answering two fundamental questions. How are we to make 1 These include the Ebola Interim Assessment Panel, chaired by Dame Barbara Stocking, which issued its final report in July 2015; the Independent Panel on the Global Response to Ebola, organized by the Harvard Global Health Institute and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; the Commission on a Global Health Risk Framework for the Future, organized by the Institute of Medicine; and the UN Secretary General’s High-Level Panel on Global Response to Health Crises. Global Forecast 2016 | 125
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2016 GLOBAL FORECAST editors CRAIG
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about csis For over 50 years, the C
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Introduction CRAIG COHEN WASHINGTON
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6 | Center for Strategic and Intern
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Reconnecting of Asia JOHN J. HAMRE
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10 | Center for Strategic and Inter
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America’s Changing Role in the Wo
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A selective engagement approach to
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tional, military, and economic mean
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ole in international affairs. Now w
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ISIS (Re)Writes History JON B. ALTE
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enth-century society of pious belie
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and daily exhibitions of terror and
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Iran after the Agreement ANTHONY H.
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understanding that the United State
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Israeli military leaders predict th
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Putin’s Europe HEATHER A. CONLEY
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far-right, anti-Semitic Jobbik part
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Predicting Russian behavior is hard
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A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Fla
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Sino-Russian Cooperation JEFFREY MA
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Interbank Financial Transaction) sy
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Reform Cold, Politics Hot: Presiden
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pushing ahead more aggressively on
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not just hypothetical; they are alr
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Geopolitical Consequences of China
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Chinese leaders are actively pursui
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By 2030, the Asia-Pacific region wi
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is not expected to be a major playe
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North Korean Vulnerability? VICTOR
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downturn in the country’s stock e
Page 75 and 76: PART 6 africa
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Page 94 and 95: What is one of the most significant
Page 96 and 97: Nuclear Deterrence in a Disordered
Page 98 and 99: The Need for Global Zero SHARON SQU
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Page 102 and 103: Increased interest in missile-based
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Page 107 and 108: PART 9 energy and security
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Page 111 and 112: e used to partially offset this “
Page 113 and 114: Linking Subnational and Supranation
Page 115 and 116: Efficacy of Sanctions against Energ
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Page 120 and 121: Responding to the Closing of Democr
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Page 124 and 125: Soft Power and Security DANIEL RUND
Page 128 and 129: sense of—and account for—the wi
Page 130 and 131: Food Insecurity, Conflict, and Stab
Page 132 and 133: Despite its impressive economic gro
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Page 136 and 137: Winning the War of Ideas FARAH PAND
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Page 140 and 141: contributors JON B. ALTERMAN is a s
Page 142 and 143: MICHAEL J. GREEN is senior vice pre
Page 144 and 145: FARAH PANDITH is a senior fellow at
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GLOBAL FORECAST

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