GLOBAL FORECAST

Introduction
CRAIG COHEN
WASHINGTON THINK TANKS EXIST AND OPER-
ATE IN A MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS. A few of these
ideas eventually become policy. Most do not. Like
any entrepreneurial venture, there is no magic formula
for success.
Because of the muddiness of the policymaking
process, a sense of mystery surrounds think tanks.
Many people do not understand what a think tank
does, how it operates, or what role it plays in a
policy setting. This leads some to exaggerate their
influence, and others to ascribe negative motives
or methods.
This confusion derives in part from a focus that is
almost uniformly on the supply side of the equation—how
think tanks seek to have influence. To
understand why think tanks are the way they are,
one must begin with the demand side. Why do
think tanks exist in the first place?
If you are a government official, foreign policy reporter,
corporate representative with an international
ambit, or civil society representative, a major
part of your job is understanding what is happening
in the world, what is happening in Washington, and
what is likely to change in the coming months and
years ahead. Despite the gigabytes of information
at everyone’s fingertips, answering these questions
is becoming harder, not easier.
There is not a Washington consensus on many policy
prescriptions today, but there is broad agreement
on the complex nature of the environment
that exists and how it resists simple solutions.
Almost every think tank report will tell you that
today’s world is not binary, static, or predictable.
Problems are multidimensional, and there is a high
degree of complexity. The pace at which people
and ideas circulate is rapidly accelerating. Secrecy
is more difficult to ensure—not just for government
but for the private sector as well. Trust in institutions
is at an all-time low.
For your average official in Washington, there is too
much noise, too many issues to cover, and too little
time to think strategically. It is difficult to know
where to turn for ground truth given the polarization
of our domestic politics. The private sector,
which may have been a source of credible outside
advice in the past, is increasingly distant from government.
And today’s budget realities do not lend
themselves to integrated, innovative thinking, instead
breeding caution and in-fighting.
People look out their windows and see uncertain-
4 | Center for Strategic and International Studies