GLOBAL FORECAST

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FARAH PANDITH is a senior fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, an adjunct senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and was the State Department’s first ever Special Representative to Muslim Communities (2009-2014). In May 2015, Ms. Pandith was appointed to Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson’s Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC). She is writing a book on extremism and driving efforts to counter extremism through new organizations, programs, and initiatives. JEFFREY RATHKE is a senior fellow and deputy director of the Europe Program at CSIS. Previously, he served as director of the State Department Press Office and was deputy director of the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General in Brussels. He served at the U.S. embassies in Kuala Lumpur, Dublin, Moscow, and Berlin. His Washington assignments have included deputy director of the Office of European Security and Political Affairs and duty officer in the White House Situation Room and State Department Operations Center. RICHARD M. ROSSOW is a senior fellow and holds the Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at CSIS. In this role he helps frame and shape policies to promote greater business and economic engagement between the two countries. He joined CSIS in 2014, having spent the last 16 years working in a variety of capacities to strengthen the partnership between the United States and India. DANIEL F. RUNDE is director of the Project on Prosperity and Development, holds the William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, and codirects the Project on U.S. Leadership in Development at CSIS. He focuses on private enterprise development, the role of private actors in development, and the role of “emerging donors.” Previously, he headed the Foundations Unit for the Department of Partnerships and Advisory Service Operations at the International Finance Corporation and was director of the Office of Global Development Alliances at the U.S. Agency for International Development. THOMAS SANDERSON is director and senior fellow in the CSIS Transnational Threats Project, where he works on terrorism, transnational crime, global trends, and intelligence issues. With fieldwork across nearly 70 countries, he engages all manner of sources including extremists, insurgents, traffickers, journalists, foreign intelligence officials, nongovernmental organizations, clergy, and academics. He has authored or coauthored 15 CSIS reports, as well as opinion pieces and articles in major newspapers. SHARON SQUASSONI is a senior fellow and directs the Proliferation Prevention Program at CSIS. She joined the Center from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Her government career included advising Congress as a senior specialist in weapons of mass destruction at the Congressional Research Service, the State Department and the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. FRANK A. VERRASTRO is senior vice president and holds the James R. Schlesinger Chair for Energy & Geopolitics at CSIS. From 2003 to 2012, he served as director of the CSIS Energy and National Security Program. His government service has included staff positions in the White House and the Department of Energy. In the private sector, he has served as director of refinery policy and crude oil planning for TOSCO and more recently as senior vice president for Pennzoil. JUAN ZARATE is a senior adviser to the Transnational Threats Project and the Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program at CSIS. He is the Chairman and Co-Founder of the Financial Integrity Network, and is also senior national security consultant and analyst for CBS News, as well as a visiting lecturer of law at Harvard Law School. He is a former deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser and former assistant secretary of the Treasury. He sits on the Board of Advisors of the National Counterterrorism Center and on the Board of Directors of the Vatican's Financial Information Authority. He is the author of the new book, Treasury's War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare. 142 | Center for Strategic and International Studies
DENISE E. ZHENG is a senior fellow and deputy director of the Strategic Technologies Program at CSIS. Previously, she served as chief of staff and lead science and engineering technical adviser as a contractor for the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency foundational cyber warfare program, Plan X. Before DARPA, Ms. Zheng was director for global government relations and cybersecurity policy at CA Technologies. Prior to CA Technologies, Ms. Zheng served as a professional staff member for the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. Global Forecast 2016 | 143
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2016 GLOBAL FORECAST editors CRAIG
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about csis For over 50 years, the C
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Introduction CRAIG COHEN WASHINGTON
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6 | Center for Strategic and Intern
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Reconnecting of Asia JOHN J. HAMRE
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10 | Center for Strategic and Inter
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America’s Changing Role in the Wo
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A selective engagement approach to
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tional, military, and economic mean
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ole in international affairs. Now w
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ISIS (Re)Writes History JON B. ALTE
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enth-century society of pious belie
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and daily exhibitions of terror and
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Iran after the Agreement ANTHONY H.
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understanding that the United State
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Israeli military leaders predict th
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Putin’s Europe HEATHER A. CONLEY
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far-right, anti-Semitic Jobbik part
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Predicting Russian behavior is hard
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A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Fla
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Sino-Russian Cooperation JEFFREY MA
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Interbank Financial Transaction) sy
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Reform Cold, Politics Hot: Presiden
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pushing ahead more aggressively on
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not just hypothetical; they are alr
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Geopolitical Consequences of China
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Chinese leaders are actively pursui
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By 2030, the Asia-Pacific region wi
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is not expected to be a major playe
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North Korean Vulnerability? VICTOR
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downturn in the country’s stock e
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PART 6 africa
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Responses in Nigeria, South Africa,
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Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa THO
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states, sustaining itself through k
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PART 7 inside the pentagon Global F
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Three Fiscal Futures In the final w
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The Battle over How to Save Defense
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apid acquisition actually happened
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Page 94 and 95: What is one of the most significant
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Page 111 and 112: e used to partially offset this “
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Page 124 and 125: Soft Power and Security DANIEL RUND
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Page 128 and 129: sense of—and account for—the wi
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Page 136 and 137: Winning the War of Ideas FARAH PAND
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Page 140 and 141: contributors JON B. ALTERMAN is a s
Page 142 and 143: MICHAEL J. GREEN is senior vice pre
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