GLOBAL FORECAST

Recommendations

Info

Geopolitical Consequences of China’s Slowdown BONNIE S. GLASER AND MATTHEW FUNAIOLE DESPITE BEING WIDELY RECOGNIZED AS THE MOST POWERFUL EMERGING COUNTRY IN THE WORLD, CHINA’S INTERNATIONAL POSITION RESTS UPON AN UNTESTED FOUNDATION. Unlike other leading countries, whose national strength emanates from the confluence of military, economic, social, and geopolitical vectors, Chinese power is inexorably tied to the expansion of the Chinese economy. Breakneck economic growth has greatly elevated China’s regional standing, but Beijing’s goal of becoming a regional leader—which may eventually extend to displacing American preeminence in the Asia-Pacific—has yet to be achieved. 58 | Center for Strategic and International Studies
The halcyon days of China’s unbridled economic growth are coming to an end. Growth rates have dropped, weaknesses in the Chinese stock market have been exposed, and China’s aging workforce poses a serious demographic challenge. Notwithstanding these problems, the Chinese economy remains the primary source of China’s national power, and the leadership is wrestling with how to translate the nation’s economic clout into increased influence, especially in Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s top foreign policy priority is to persuade China’s neighbors that China is a benign leader that can be trusted to assume the reigns of a new Sino-centric regional order. Xi’s vision of “Asia for Asians” foresee a greater role for China within the region, but with economic strength serving as the primary driver of China’s resurgence, China lacks the leverage to fundamentally alter the U.S.-dominated regional order. Countries in the Asia-Pacific are keen to reap economic benefits from Global Forecast 2016 | 59
Page 1:
2016 GLOBAL FORECAST editors CRAIG
Page 4 and 5:
about csis For over 50 years, the C
Page 6 and 7:
Introduction CRAIG COHEN WASHINGTON
Page 8 and 9:
6 | Center for Strategic and Intern
Page 10 and 11: Reconnecting of Asia JOHN J. HAMRE
Page 12 and 13: 10 | Center for Strategic and Inter
Page 14 and 15: America’s Changing Role in the Wo
Page 16 and 17: A selective engagement approach to
Page 18 and 19: tional, military, and economic mean
Page 22 and 23: ole in international affairs. Now w
Page 26 and 27: ISIS (Re)Writes History JON B. ALTE
Page 28 and 29: enth-century society of pious belie
Page 30 and 31: and daily exhibitions of terror and
Page 32 and 33: Iran after the Agreement ANTHONY H.
Page 34 and 35: understanding that the United State
Page 36 and 37: Israeli military leaders predict th
Page 40 and 41: Putin’s Europe HEATHER A. CONLEY
Page 42 and 43: far-right, anti-Semitic Jobbik part
Page 44 and 45: Predicting Russian behavior is hard
Page 46 and 47: A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Fla
Page 48 and 49: Sino-Russian Cooperation JEFFREY MA
Page 50 and 51: Interbank Financial Transaction) sy
Page 54 and 55: Reform Cold, Politics Hot: Presiden
Page 56 and 57: pushing ahead more aggressively on
Page 58 and 59: not just hypothetical; they are alr
Page 62 and 63: Chinese leaders are actively pursui
Page 66 and 67: By 2030, the Asia-Pacific region wi
Page 68 and 69: is not expected to be a major playe
Page 70 and 71: North Korean Vulnerability? VICTOR
Page 72 and 73: downturn in the country’s stock e
Page 75 and 76: PART 6 africa
Page 77 and 78: Responses in Nigeria, South Africa,
Page 79 and 80: Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa THO
Page 81 and 82: states, sustaining itself through k
Page 83 and 84: PART 7 inside the pentagon Global F
Page 85 and 86: Three Fiscal Futures In the final w
Page 87 and 88: The Battle over How to Save Defense
Page 89: apid acquisition actually happened
Page 94 and 95: What is one of the most significant
Page 96 and 97: Nuclear Deterrence in a Disordered
Page 98 and 99: The Need for Global Zero SHARON SQU
Page 100 and 101: faith on effective measures relatin
Page 102 and 103: Increased interest in missile-based
Page 104 and 105: state and substate actors has becom
Page 107 and 108: PART 9 energy and security
Page 109 and 110: Implications of Sustained Low Oil P
Page 111 and 112:
e used to partially offset this “
Page 113 and 114:
Linking Subnational and Supranation
Page 115 and 116:
Efficacy of Sanctions against Energ
Page 117:
Iran. Both Russia and Iran can accu
Page 120 and 121:
Responding to the Closing of Democr
Page 122 and 123:
er to support the consolidation of
Page 124 and 125:
Soft Power and Security DANIEL RUND
Page 126 and 127:
After the Ebola Catastrophe J. STEP
Page 128 and 129:
sense of—and account for—the wi
Page 130 and 131:
Food Insecurity, Conflict, and Stab
Page 132 and 133:
Despite its impressive economic gro
Page 134 and 135:
prisoners in a gesture of good fait
Page 136 and 137:
Winning the War of Ideas FARAH PAND
Page 138 and 139:
versity of religious belief, includ
Page 140 and 141:
contributors JON B. ALTERMAN is a s
Page 142 and 143:
MICHAEL J. GREEN is senior vice pre
Page 144 and 145:
FARAH PANDITH is a senior fellow at
Page 147:
Blank
show all

GLOBAL FORECAST

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?