Sustainability of European Irrigated Agriculture under Water Framework Directive and Agenda 2000

OVERVIEW
measure the impact of farmer’s decisions on quality of groundwater we consider nitrogen
balance as a ‘means-based’ measure, while nitrate lost to groundwater is ‘effect-based’.
Although the link is indirect, our model attempts to acquire an understanding of the pressures
involved, and the conversion of this pressures to ecosystem impact would require a complex
multidisciplinary model that lies out of the scope of our research.
The aim of this section is to select a limited number of parameters that can be fed into the
mathematical models in order to evaluate the impact on irrigated agriculture of various policy
scenarios. The model uses the following subset of OECD sustainability indicators (OECD, 2001;
Pierr, 2003).
We finally selected the following list:
· Economic balance: Farm income, Farm, Contribution to GDP, Public
support.
· Social impact: Farm employment, Seasonality.
· Landscape and biodiversity: Genetic diversity, Soil cover.
· Water use: Irrigation technology, Water use, Marginal value of water.
· Nutrients and pollutants: Nitrogen balance, Pesticide risk, Energy
balance.
Chapter 5 explains in more detail how these parameters were computed, and this is a point
where we benefit from the use of the multicriteria paradigm as this defines its concepts into a
model that we can review.
5.4. Policy scenarios
A wide range of methodologies may be utilised to build a model to simulate various
scenarios, and reviews of such processes can be found elsewhere. Mathematical programming
has been widely used for this purpose, and is frequently used for policy simulation. Examples
of the use by the European Commission of agricultural sector modelling for medium-term
forecasting and system simulation based on mathematical programming can be found in
European Commission (2000, 2001) and Heckelei and Britz (2001), which is an example of
how a model can be used as a tool for generating medium-term projections for the agricultural
sectors of EU member states and the impact of alternative CAP scenarios.
In any case, as we explain in depth in chapter 3, scenario definition is another key aspect of
the Wadi project. These scenarios reflect both the future implementation of the WFD and the
foreseeable development of the CAP. As has been commented above, the WFD requires
member states to introduce water prices that integrate the “polluter pays principle” (PPP);
thus, raising the price will induce the user to make more rational use of water. Thus, different
scenarios will suggest different degrees of cost recovery. Along the same lines, future CAP
reforms should be taken into account in the characterization of these scenarios.
5.5. Methodological approach summary
Table 2.1 summarises our approach versus classical modelling techniques.
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