Sustainability of European Irrigated Agriculture under Water Framework Directive and Agenda 2000

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WADI SCENARIO DEFINITION programme (Berkhout et al., DTI: 1999, 2002). The Foresight Programme identified 5 main dimensions of change: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Demography and settlement patterns The composition and rate of economic growth The rate and direction of technology change Social and political values The nature of governance The Foresight Futures framework focuses primarily on the last two dimensions when applying exploratory scenarios. This is judged sufficient when the sectors under study are located in developed countries. In developed nations human demography is relatively well characterised in current population models and hence there would be little to gain from scenario elaboration. According to the Foresight Futures framework economic growth can be regarded as the outcome of a set of institutional factors (fiscal and monetary policies, trade liberalisation, regulation and legislation) rather than an autonomous driver of change. Likewise, perhaps more controversially, the rate and direction of technological change is regarded as being shaped by market, regulatory, political and cultural factors and is not regarded as an exogenous factor of change. On this basis, four possible futures were constructed which are distinguished in terms of two dimensions of change: social values and governance. The social values dimension accounts for policy making priorities and patterns of economic activity, including consumption behaviour. At one end of the axis denoted by consumerism/individualism, values are dominated by private consumption, personal freedoms and short term considerations. Here, markets and economic factors are the major determinants of resource use and human activity. At the other end denoted by conservationism/community, there is a greater concern with collective interest, social cohesion, equality, and long term goals such as sustainable development. The governance dimension represents the structure of political authority and decision making. At one end denoted by globalisation/interdependence, governance is increasingly distributed away from the national level towards country groupings or international organisations, such as EU or WTO. In such situations the importance of international boundaries reduce, and economic, social and political agendas are increasingly set above the level of any individual nation or region. At the other end denoted by regionalisation/autonomy, decision making is retained at national and increasingly regional levels. Sovereignty is retained over key areas of policy: the process of globalisation is weakened. Regional government has greater autonomy over decision making, and economic, social and political boundaries are strengthened. National and regional development reflects local capabilities and resources. The four scenarios are illustrated in figure 4.2. They can be described by narratives or storylines and selected indicators. The current dominant development paradigm is shown to be mainly a mix of World Markets and Provincial Enterprise. 41
THE SUSTAINABILITY OF EUROPEAN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE Figure 4.2. Possible Futures, based on Foresight (DTI, 1999) Social values Globalization/ interdependence Governance Consumerism/ individualism World Markets Global Sustainability Local Stewardship Conservationism/ Community Present Regionalization/ autonomy World Markets are characterised by an emphasis on private consumption and a highly developed and integrated world trading system. Global Sustainability: is characterised by more pronounced social and ecological values, which are evident in global institutions and trading systems. There is collective action to address social and environmental issues. Growth is slower but more equitably distributed compared to the World Markets scenario. Provincial Enterprise is characterised by emphasis on private consumption but with decisions made at national and regional level to reflect local priorities and interests. Although market values dominate, this is within national/regional boundaries. Local Stewardship is characterised by strong local or regional governments which emphasise social values, encouraging self-reliance, self sufficiency and conservation of natural resources and the environment. This scenario framework can be adapted to provide an analytical framework within which to explore European agricultural and water policy options as they affect irrigation. 3. AGRICULTURAL POLICY –SCENARIO BUILDING Drawing on the aforementioned framework, a number of Agricultural Policy Scenarios are constructed which reflect variations in the type and extent of support to the farming sector. Particular reference is made to Agenda 2000 Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), the CAP mid-term review proposals and future prospects for agricultural commodity markets, including those for irrigated crops. The WADI project focuses on changes in EU-15 agricultural policy as they affect the economic, social and environmental performance of irrigation in the partner countries. Table 4.1 links the Foresight Scenarios with scenarios for agricultural policy, together with a brief description of the agricultural policy regime. The Baseline is taken as the agricultural policy regime in place in 2000/1, as determined by CAP at that time. This 2000/1 baseline is used to provide a relative reference point for the definition of future scenarios. The Baseline is also be extrapolated to 2010 based on predictions (rather than possibilities) of agricultural markets and prices from EU, OCDE and other sources. This extrapolation is referred to as the 42
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