DEVELOPMENT

4 The Afd2025 scenarios
IMPASSE
Irreversible tipping points, or widespread
stagnation…
The planet’s population growth continues its strong upward trend, pointing to 11.5 billion
human beings by 2050, more than 40% of whom have continued along an energy-intensive
development path dependent on massive consumption and exploitation of natural
resources. The world of 2025 has seen an overall rise in poverty due to the knock-on
effect of proliferating economic crises and the general trend towards an unprecedented
shrinking of the State’s role, which leaves little room for anything more than the exercise
of its sovereign functions. The adverse effects are quickly felt, be it the disorderly urban
spread that is now the norm in many regions, or the impact on education and healthcare
systems.
Box 2
Freshwater, a now rare essential resource
In this scenario, characterized by demographic pressure and the mismanagement of
resources, the number of people living in water-stressed areas will double, rising from
2.4 billion in 2010 to 4.8 billion in 2050 – i.e. nearly half of the world’s population.
Low-income countries in particular will suffer from water scarcity, with this issue placing
an increasing burden on their economic growth and food production. But it will also plague
the emerging and industrialized countries (the situation in California in 2015 being a prime
example). The impact will be especially severe for China, India and the large emerging
countries, where water scarcity could directly affect 2.7 billion people by 2050 compared
to 1.4 billion today. Container-supplied water and rationing for tens of millions of
people in São Paulo or Los Angeles, desertification in Iran, and wars fought over
sharing the waters of the Nile and the Himalayas are but a few examples of how
the consequences of this water scarcity will materialize.
Foresighting for Development
Development agencies, steering through future worlds. Afd2025
I
Tipping points have been reached for climate and biodiversity, giving rise to the uncontrolled
acceleration of tensions over resources that no longer fulfill their regulatory functions.
The socio-economic system has tried its best to adapt but the decisions made are overly
short-termist and lack the coordination needed to tackle the growing number of crises,
especially those involving violence in the major cities of the Global South, where water
and electricity services have failed.
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