DEVELOPMENT

5 A host of questions for AFD
In the “Babel 3.0” and “Aligning Aspirations” scenarios, and especially in the “Greening
without States” scenario, these new influential players have a preponderant role not only
in driving mobilization around shared visions of the world extending beyond national
borders, but also in global governance, which also goes far beyond their local scope of
action.
Other donors
In recent years, newcomers who are “competitors” (17) or “co-producers” in the development
support arena have emerged, and this trend is set to continue overall. They include
local or international private actors, NGOs and think tanks, as well as informal but
connected actors. Their growing importance is yet another sign that the centers of
influence, decision-making and power are increasingly atomized. For AFD, this trend –
which runs through most of the scenarios – raises the question of how the Agency can
adapt to the rise of these new actors, but also of how it can position itself vis-à-vis
the trajectories followed by its traditional development finance partners and other
counterparties.
A recent retrospective glance confirms that the business model of national or international
public development banks is relatively sound. This type of actor tends to be on the rise
in both the Global North and South. It is rather the traditional actors, particularly the
multilaterals like the World Bank and the United Nations agencies, that may be the
most vulnerable in the forthcoming years, above all owing to the difficulties in
changing their governance and to the weight of their past. Although their action is
potentially decisive in the “Impasse” and “Aligning Aspirations” worlds, this is less clearcut
in the other scenarios, where they are crowded out by private actors, regional and
emerging country organizations, or international coalitions of development financiers. (18)
“The catalytic efforts of national development banks will be crucial in a turbulent world
where the efficacy and adequacy of big multilateral institutions (such as the UN and
the World Bank) will be more and more challenged.” Prof. Irving Mintzer, Johns
Hopkins University.
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Foresighting for Development
Development agencies, steering through future worlds. Afd2025
I
The traditional bilateral donors, particularly European, have recently opted for a sharp
increase in their activities. This is particularly the case of DFID (the UK has decided to
implement its ODA target of 0.7% of GDI). Other OECD countries like Korea have also
decided to move into the development assistance field, as a vector of influence. This
inter-state competition through development assistance is very present in the “Babel 3.0”
scenario, where development models compete with one another.
17/ In the “development industry,” relations with other donors are based on cooperation and coordination efforts, but
competition is well and truly present. Some even refer to “coopetition.”
18/ The creation of the BRICS Bank, and more so of the AIIB, represent weak signals. Another illustration is the increasingly
influential positioning on the international scene of the International Development Finance Club (IDFC), which brings
together twenty-three of the world’s major national, bilateral and regional development banks, including AFD.
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