DEVELOPMENT

4 The Afd2025 scenarios
Foresighting for Development
Development agencies, steering through future worlds. Afd2025
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Instruments such as the Green Climate Fund have been created and operationalized, but
these have failed to mobilize engagement on a large enough scale for economies to implement
the environmental transition. In fact, the Fund has never managed to ramp up the scale
of public and especially private financing. The funds marshaled range from USD10–25
billion per year – moreover, this includes private investments that produce mixed results.
These figures are to be compared to the thousands of billions of dollars needing to be
redirected into “green” investments. Under pressure from many developing countries
and the increasing frequency of natural disasters, many of its actions are actually
funneled into climate change adaptation initiatives rather than the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions.
Many world regions overstretched by security problems (e.g., the Sahelian belt, Middle East,
Indian rim…) exist alongside regions with more linear development trajectories, which means
that needs are still highly differentiated. Public project owners now usually “shop around”
the different bilateral and multilateral donors, but also NGOs and foundations. In this highly
competitive setting, megacities and some large cities are only too ready to approach not only
development financiers, but also commercial banks and financial markets, independently
of their government, to obtain funding for their sustainable development (prioritarily, the
development of public transport, energy efficiency, smart grids, short chains…).
Philanthropic foundations have continued to expand their activities, which in 2025 represent
more than half of total ODA. Due to the dilution of conventional public resources for health
and education, these foundations have largely concentrated on these two sectors, relying
more on local civil society (associations, businesses) to identify needs and appointing NGOs
as their operators. In addition, substantial migrant remittances, coupled with a now mature
Fintech (7) sector offering comprehensive banking and insurance services, have fostered the
emergence of development projects, mainly in Africa, that are implemented without traditional
donor support. In many respects, innovation – be it developmental (local projects
with high environmental impacts, CSR, ESS) or financial – is mainly spearheaded by these
actors, who are competing with the major international development banks and Bretton
Woods institutions. From day to day, they are putting into action a raft of solutions to which
the traditional players pay no more than lip service.
7/ Company in the financial services sector whose business model is based on digital platforms (mobile banking, crowdfunding...)
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