DEVELOPMENT

4 The Afd2025 scenarios
BABEL 3.0
GREENING
WITHOUT STATES
Hyper-connectivity helps highly diverse actors
to manage certain common goods
Hyper-mobility (of people, goods and capital), hyper-connectivity and the digital revolution
– which has been largely inclusive even in poor countries and disadvantaged or crisis
zones – are key engines for disseminating more innovative and collaborative ways of
thinking and developing, able to integrate complexity and uncertainty or better address
human and societal challenges. The digital revolution also brings together highly diverse
actors (States, civil society, private sector, non-state actors), albeit in different ways and
on different scales. Interconnected networks and freer access to ideas, cultures and
knowledge are raising awareness of the need not only to compensate for the failings of
the traditional actors (States, multilaterals, religious leaders) and/or complement their
actions, but also to build new coalitions of actors to this end.
In some cases, thanks to digital technology, actors convene around these dynamics, transcending
borders and territories that are no longer the sole “crucible” for mobilizing
coherent collective action aligned on common interests. Neighbors are no longer only
geographical, but also defined by a community of interest.
Propelled by this dynamic, by 2025, a more proactive approach to demographic transition is
finally underway in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Production methods are gradually
evolving with priority set on local systems; the concern for sustainability increasingly steers
industrial and agricultural development; investment in education and health is rising
(sometimes entailing cuts to other allocations of resources, both human and financial);
and digital technology and hyper-connectivity are spreading rapidly across the planet,
most of the time providing useful support for these new trends and initiatives. High-tech
also sometimes helps drive the massive dissemination of low-tech solutions. But, apart
from digital technologies, which are helping bring about an increasingly connected world,
confidence in technology as a pivotal solution remains moderate overall.
Local development is less disorderly and in search of well-balanced solutions. Fewer and
fewer regions are left behind and priority is often set on the development of secondary
cities.
Foresighting for Development
Development agencies, steering through future worlds. Afd2025
I
The question of how goods are used is gradually taking precedence over that of who owns
them, which eases pressure on natural resources. Recycling and questions of production
and waste management are integrated into business models as structuring elements.
Disadvantaged regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa are not only experiencing positive
trends, having learnt from the mistakes and the arduous learning curve of more developed
countries and regions, but they also come up with solutions that are exported elsewhere.
The encouraging results produce a faster pace of change in production/consumption
behaviors, notably within the middle classes. A virtuous cycle is beginning to take root.
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