DEVELOPMENT

4 The Afd2025 scenarios
BABEL 3.0
GREENING
WITHOUT STATES
The SDGs no longer stand as the central issue for States, be it in their international relations
or national agendas. Certainly, States have demonstrated their inability to develop a longterm
political vision, instead playing a short-termist firefighting role in response to a
volatile public demand that shifts in line with causes relayed on social networks as an
informal, changing and sometimes belated echo of a connected global public opinion. At
the same time, States continue to fight a series of medium-intensity local conflicts.
Given the lack of any long-term vision from the States, it is the non-state newcomers
(foundations, firms, platforms…) – not (or less) exposed to short-term constraints (electoral
for example) – who are setting de facto the international development agenda, notably
on environmental issues. Megacities and sub-national bodies that are networked and have
more resources also follow suite. In fact, the cities organize themselves far more effectively
than States. The approach of these new actors is above all transformational, in line with
the major global challenges, notably the planet’s environment.
As public-sector demand for long-term actions is in decline, public effort follows the same
trend. Multilateral donors are finding it difficult to survive. The bilateral aid agencies are
seeing their public mandate evolve markedly towards States’ emergency and security
issues on the one hand, and promoting economic influence on the other, and to some
extent towards issues of social inclusion not addressed by the coalitions of non-state
actors.
However, given their expertise and lengthy experience of long-term projects, development
agencies, like NGOs, have become the operators of choice for foundations and other
new owners of international development projects. The agencies are therefore competing
on the competences that they can “sell”. AFD is thus an operator at the service of the
French State for emergency actions, economic influence and sometimes social inclusion,
on the one hand, and of private/hybrid project owners for longer-term actions targeting
above all environmental issues, on the other hand. The Agency’s financial tools and
expertise have been diversified to respond to this demand, while public funding has scaled
back considerably. Some development agencies are opening their governance to non-state
actors to adapt to these changes.
Foresighting for Development
Development agencies, steering through future worlds. Afd2025
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