China’s expanding deserts threaten environmental, economic and political stability ASIA’S HIGH-STAKES FIGHT AGAINST SMOG AND HEAT Polluted air and heatwaves are killing millions, and Asia could suffer the most in a hotter, dirtier future unless it acts fast Primary sources of pollutants in Beijing are exhaust fumes, coal burning and dust storms
FOCUS Outdoor air pollution, which kills an estimated 3 million people every year, has grown by 8% a year globally. Unless nations take action, the global death toll is expected to double by 2050 as urban populations increase and car numbers grow – yet the topic rarely makes the mainstream media headlines. Of all the world’s regions, Asia is uniquely exposed. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 98% of urban areas in low- and middle-income countries with populations of more than 100,000 do not meet its air quality standards. Fast-growing cities in Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific and the Middle East are the worst affected, with many showing pollution levels at up to 10 times WHO limits. Rapid urbanization as well as population and economic growth across the region is creating pollution from oilfueled traffic congestion, coal burning for heat and power, smoke from solid fuel cookers, and a range of pollutants from inefficient agricultural processes. A changing climate threatens to make matters worse still. Hotter towns and cities will generate more ozone-related pollution from traffic and other fossil fuel emissions sources. When it’s hotter, rainfall and wind patterns can also change, causing particulates to stay suspended in the air longer. DEADLY SMOG Then there’s the vicious circle in which hotter conditions cause those with access to air conditioning to use it more, pushing more pollutants into the air from coal-fired power plants. A hotter climate could also spark more forest fires, contributing to region-wide, health-threatening smogs, such as the 2015 Southeast Asian haze caused by illegal slash-and-burn practices that affected eight countries. A hotter climate in Asia will have impact beyond poorer air quality. As temperatures rise, so do hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. This is an experience all too familiar lately in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent, where heatwaves have killed thousands and put severe pressure on health services. There are also economic impacts to hotter conditions. The region’s extensive manufacturing and agriculture sectors mean its workers face exposure not just to polluted air but also to the physiological effects of heat. “There is a lot of evidence to suggest that temperature extremes impact productivity,” says Joshua Graff Zivin at the University of California in San Diego’s Global Health Institute. “There are negative impacts for people who work in exposed sectors like manufacturing, » THERE NEEDS TO BE A TRANSITION AWAY FROM BURNING LOW QUALITY FUELS, AND MOVING UP THE ENERGY LADDER TO NATURAL GAS « agriculture and construction. People lose a couple of hours out of a workweek. Most people don’t realize that the vast majority of manufacturing is taking place in cheap tin construction sheds with process heat, lots of activity, very little cooling and exposure to the outside air from giant open truck bays.” MANAGING RISKS Success in tackling these issues has been hitherto disappointingly limited and patchy in Asia. It might be expected, for example, that as the region industrialized and became wealthier, air pollution would reverse, with stronger measures put into place to limit the worst effects. Yet this has been far from the case. Although China has until recently been the most striking example, where more than 350 cities do not meet WHO’s air quality standards, India might now lay claim to the dubious reputation of being the worst nation for air quality: four Indian cities occupy the global top 10 for sub-PM2.5 pollution. Other countries in the region, including Pakistan and Indonesia, are struggling to tackle the issue. There are signs of progress, however. In April, health, climate and weather experts from across the region gathered in Colombo, Sri Lanka, for the first Climate Services Forum for Health, to help better understand and manage the risks from heatwaves. Meanwhile, China has begun to make significant progress in cleaning up its air, and more measures are in the pipeline, says Junjie Zhang, from the University of California in San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy, who has worked on a range of climate and air quality related research projects. “For China, the situation is getting better overall.” STRONGER ENFORCEMENT Slower economic growth and a move to a less resourceintensive economy is part of the reason for improving trends in China. But policy is also having an impact. The central government is taking the issue seriously; it has begun enforcing existing rules more strongly and will be adding more. Modest air pollution fees are already in force and new environmental taxes look likely, says Zhang. “China’s new minister of environmental protection is focused on enforcement and this is the key for China, where there has been poor enforcement at a local level. If a city does not comply with environmental standards, leaders of the local government would be called to the ministry and reprimanded. Local governments are under pressure. Allianz • 29
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